System Operator

Europe Shifting to a Carbon Dioxide-based Vehicle Taxation Regime for a Low-carbon Automotive Industry

As a result, every European VM is racing towards capturing a share of this opportunity. New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.automotive.frost.com), Implementation Roadmap of CO2 Tax Banding in European Countries and Impact Analysis on Powertrain and Green Technology Adoption, finds that about 80 per cent of the European vehicle sales is expected to be in the less than 150g/km CO2 emission band by 2015. The countries covered in this research service are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

"By 2015, the average car in Europe will be 5 per cent lighter, with 30 per cent lower CO2 emissions," says Frost & Sullivan Programme Manager Vigneshwaran Chandran. "Downsizing, gasoline direct injection (GDI), and start-stop will be the key technologies helping original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) achieve emission targets by 2015."

About 8-10 million cars are expected to be in the less than 120g/km CO2 emission band in Europe by 2015 – a significantly attractive market opportunity for both volume and premium manufacturers.

While VMs invest heavily in the development of new low-CO2 models and engine variants, it is challenging to pass on these costs on to the customer, risking the OEMs’ profitability.

"Offsetting the high development costs for green technologies and time for returns-on-investment on certain expensive developments such as gasoline direct injection and hybridisation will be a key commercial challenge for automakers," explains fellow analyst Hariher Balasubramanian.

Subsequently, automakers will likely employ different strategies for emission reduction, with mass manufacturers adopting moderate downsizing and technologies like variable valve train (VVT) and GDI. On the other hand, premium automakers will invest significantly on aggressive engine downsizing by more than 20 per cent, combined with full hybridization.

"Premium manufacturers such as Daimler and BMW are likely to use a combination of electric vehicles, hybridization, and downsizing to achieve their 2015 CO2 emission target of 130g/km, while volume manufacturers will use a mix of green technologies such as GDI, VVT and start-stop systems," concludes Balasubramanian.

Implementation Roadmap of CO2 Tax Banding in European Countries and Impact Analysis on Powertrain and Green Technology Adoption is part of the Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Services programme, which also includes research in the following markets: 360 Degree Analysis of the European Powertrain Market for Passenger Vehicles, Executive Analysis of the European Light Commercial Vehicles Powertrain Market, and Global Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Database. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company’s Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO’s Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from 40 offices on six continents.

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