Other renewables

Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2012

In 2012, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will take major strides toward becoming a mature if small component of the overall vehicle fleet. The number of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold and the variety of options for consumers will expand rapidly. The fruits of the multi-billion dollar investments in recent years in lithium ion battery manufacturing facilities will provide abundance in capacity that could outpace demand, but any oversupply will not impact vehicle pricing. In order to analyze the impacts of these and other key issues facing the EV industry, Pike Research has prepared a white paper that makes ten predictions about the continuing evolution of the market in 2012 and beyond.

Many potential buyers will hold off on purchases of electric vehicles (EVs) during 2012 due to the premium pricing of the vehicles, according to a new white paper from Pike Research. Nissan raised the price of the Leaf for 2012, and while the 2012 Chevrolet Volt will sell for $1,000 less, the car comes without several features that were previously standard but are now options. According to data from Pike Research’s annual Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, the optimal price for a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) to engage consumers is $23,750.

With the 2012 Toyota Prius PHEV ($32,000), the Honda Fit BEV ($36,625), and the Ford Focus EV ($39,995) all north of $30,000 (before federal incentives), consumers hoping for an affordable EV ride have been left wanting. These relatively high selling prices will constrain the market for PEVs in 2012. The white paper, which includes 10 predictions about the EV market in 2012, is available for free download on Pike Research’s website.

“Vehicles on sale in 2012 will not benefit from recent cost reductions in batteries,” says research director John Gartner. “The batteries in these vehicles were ordered before 2012, so any flexibility in reducing vehicle pricing will not occur until 2013 or 2014 at the earliest. Nevertheless, the global market for plug-in electric vehicles will grow to more than a quarter million vehicles in 2012 – a number sufficient to put an end to the ‘are they for real?’ speculation that has surrounded this market.”

Pike Research’s industry predictions for 2012 include the following:

Car-sharing services will expand the market for EVs and hybrids.
Battery production will outstrip vehicle production.
The Asia Pacific region will become the early leader in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems.
Third-party EV charging companies will dominate public charging sales.
Employers will begin to purchase EV chargers in large numbers.
EVs will begin to function as home appliances.

Pike Research’s white paper, “Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2012”, analyzes ten key trends that will influence the development of the electric vehicle market in 2012 and beyond. Conclusions and predictions in this paper are drawn from the firm’s ongoing Smart Transportation research coverage, with forecasts included for key market sectors.

Topics covered in the paper include:
Global sales forecasts for EVs in 2012
PEV pricing issues
Car sharing services
Battery production trends
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies
EV charging infrastructure
Commercialization of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
EVs in the smart energy home

This Pike Research white paper analyzes ten key trends that will influence the development of the electric vehicle market in 2012 and beyond. Conclusions and predictions in this paper are drawn from the firm’s ongoing Smart Transportation research coverage, with forecasts included for key market sectors.
What does this report answer?

What will be the most important developments in the EV industry in 2012?
How will the price of EVs impact consumer demand?
Which regions of the world will advance EV development?
What will be the driving forces of EV charging infrastructure?
Will battery manufacturing keep pace with vehicle demand?

www.pikeresearch.com