JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and LONGi shipped about 63 GW of PV modules in the first quarter of 2024, accounting for over 55% of total shipments, underscoring intensified concentration.
The top 10 brands collectively delivered around 98 GW, capturing nearly 86% of shipments, surpassing industry expectations.
The market dominance of the top 4 brands, maintaining operating rates above 60% and exceeding 85% in March, has led to increased market concentration. Lower-ranked brands experience fluctuating operating rates, sometimes dropping below 20%.
Tenders from state-owned enterprises are driving prices down, with n-type modules reaching as low as CNY 0.79/W and p-type at CNY 0.74/W. Despite some prioritizing production over profit, lower-ranked brands face limited opportunities in this competitive landscape.
The thresholds for top brands have doubled since 2023, with the Top 10 now surpassing 4 GW and the Top 15 exceeding 1.6 GW.
This signals rapid growth in shipment volumes by leading manufacturers, squeezing out space for other brands to survive.
The combined shipment targets of the Top 4 and Top 9 brands exceed 370 GW and 570 GW, surpassing the total global demand for modules this year.
Brands ranked 14-23 are in a battle for survival, fighting over the last piece of the pie. With over 90% of the market share secured by leading manufacturers, the remaining space is minimal.
Arrival of the n-type era
The popularity of n-type modules is on the rise, with 8 companies announcing proactive plans.
Earlier market predictions suggested that n-type modules would make up over 65% of the market share for the year, possibly even exceeding 85% in the fourth quarter.
In the first quarter of this year, at least 6 companies stated that n-type module shipments accounted for over 70%, some even reaching 100%.
Solarbe’s data on annual targets shows that at least 8 companies have set their n-type module shipment proportions at over 80%. For most companies, n-type module shipment targets exceed 60%, signaling the official arrival of the n-type era.
Top Performers in Q1 2024
- JinkoSolar: Retained the top position with 19.993 GW shipments, showcasing a 53% YoY growth. JinkoSolar aims to achieve 100-110 GW shipments in 2024, with n-type modules constituting nearly 90% of the total.
- JA Solar: Rose to the second spot with its integrated supply chain, global presence, and technological innovations. The company targets over 100 GW capacity across all segments by the end of 2024.
- Trina Solar: Maintaining an optimistic outlook for 2024, Trina Solar anticipates global module demand reaching 650 GW. To meet this, the company has set a robust shipment target of 80-90 GW for the year.
- LONGi: Foresees the dominance of back-contact (BC) cell technology in the next five years and plans to invest heavily in R&D and industrialization. The company aims to achieve 100 GW annual BC cell capacity within three years.
- TW Solar (Tongwei Solar): After securing the fifth position in PV module shipments in 2023, TW Solar continues to expand its market presence. With a focus on enhancing distribution and brand advantages, TW Solar aims to surpass a yearly shipment target of 50 GW in 2024.
- Astronergy: Focuses on advancing its n-type cell efficiency and production capacity. By the end of 2024, they aim to achieve an n-type cell capacity of 59 GW, supporting their goal of achieving 90% n-type shipments for the year.
- GCL System Integration (GCL SI): Returning to the Top 10 list, GCL SI has secured significant contracts and aims for a yearly shipment target exceeding 26 GW. They prioritize quality enhancement, efficiency improvement, and capacity utilization to elevate profitability.]
- Risen Energy: Engaged in both TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) technologies, Risen Energy plans to expand its production capacity through multiple sites and consolidate its market position.
- Qn-Solar: As a rising star in the n-type market, Qn-Solar forecasts 80%+ n-type module shipments. The company boasts 11 GW n-type cell, 17 GW module capacity by Q1 2024, targeting over 80% n-type module shipments for the year.
- Huansheng: Building on TCL Huansheng’s PV prowess, it integrates tech and manufacturing, boosting competitiveness. Their “Shingled 4.0” modules boast innovative design, leading in density by 1.5%-3% and power by 10-15W compared to industry norms, with efficiency exceeding by 0.2%+.
- DAH Solar: With patented “Full Screen” modules, they feature flush borders and glass, preventing water, dust, and snow accumulation, boosting generation by 6-15%, and slashing maintenance costs. In Q1 2024, the company achieved 86% n-type shipments, projecting over 95% for the year.
Vera Wang, solarbeglobal.com
