In the fourth week of July, prices in the main European electricity markets, as well as gas and CO2 futures prices, remained in the same range as in the previous week. Most electricity markets registered negative prices on Sunday, July 28. On that day, Italy registered the highest photovoltaic energy production for a July month. Wind energy production was higher than the previous week in most markets, while electricity demand decreased in almost all markets.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
In the week of July 22, solar energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula, after the drop of the previous week. In Spain the increase was 4.9% and in Portugal 2.4%. In France, production for the week as a whole was similar to that of the previous week. On the other hand, in Germany and Italy, solar energy production decreased compared to the previous week. The German market, which reversed the upward trend of the previous week, registered the largest drop, 16%, while in the Italian market the decline was 3.2%.
Despite the week?on?week decline, on Sunday, July 28, the Italian market registered the highest daily photovoltaic energy production for a July month, with 126 GWh of generation.
In the week of July 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, the previous week’s trends will reverse, with production increasing in Germany and Italy and decreasing in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the fourth week of July, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Increases ranged from 0.2% to 39% in Portugal and Italy, respectively. In both cases, the increase reversed the downward trend of the previous two weeks. However, the French and German markets registered declines in wind energy generation, 14% and 9.6%, respectively.
In the week of July 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, it will decrease in France, Germany and the Iberian Peninsula, but it will increase in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of July 22, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets, compared to the previous week. The Belgian market registered the largest drop, 5.9%, while the Dutch market registered the smallest drop, 0.2%. In both markets, the downward trend continued for the fourth and third consecutive week, respectively. In contrast, demand only increased in the Iberian Peninsula. In Portugal, the increase was 7.6%, reversing the previous week’s drop. In Spain, although July 25 was a public holiday in some regions, demand increased for the sixth consecutive week, this time by 0.6%.
The decline in demand coincided with drops in average temperatures ranging from 0.6 °C in Great Britain to 1.9 °C in Germany. Average temperatures only increased compared to the previous week in the Iberian Peninsula. They were 1.2 °C higher in Portugal and 0.5 °C higher in Spain.
For the week of July 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the downward trend will continue. Demand will decrease in Germany, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands and Great Britain. In contrast, demand will increase in Spain and France, and it will remain similar in Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of July, prices in the main European electricity markets remained stable, in the same range as in the previous week. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the largest percentage price rise, 14%. The EPEX SPOT market of Germany registered a percentage increase of 7.3% and the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands, of 1.8%. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the smallest increase, 1.1%. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price decline, 13%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices decreased between 1.8% in the IPEX market of Italy and 3.8% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of July 22, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Italian market were the exceptions, with averages of €87.39/MWh and €113.20/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €24.90/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €50.04/MWh in the French market to €84.41/MWh in the Portuguese market.
Regarding hourly prices, most analyzed European markets registered negative prices on July 28. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets also registered negative prices on July 24. The Dutch market registered the lowest hourly price of the fourth week of July, ?€64.13/MWh, on Sunday, July 28, from 13:00 to 14:00.
During the week of July 22, electricity demand decreased in most markets, contributing to price decreases in the Belgian, British, French and Italian markets. In the latter market, in addition, wind energy production increased. On the other hand, in the German market, wind and solar energy production fell, contributing to the price increase. The Spanish and Portuguese markets were the only markets among those analyzed in which electricity demand increased, favoring price increases.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the week of July 29, prices will be similar to those of the fourth week of July. In the German, French, Belgian and Dutch markets, prices will fall, while in the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the United Kingdom, prices will be higher than in the fourth week of July, although the increases will be lower than in the week of July 22.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $82.40/bbl, on Monday, July 22. After a 1.7% drop from the previous day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $81.01/bbl, on Tuesday, July 23. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since June 8. Subsequently, prices recovered and on Friday, July 26, they fell again. On that day, the settlement price was $81.13/bbl, down 1.8% from the previous Friday.
In the fourth week of July, concerns about demand in China continued to exert its downward influence on prices of these futures. However, declining US oil reserves, expectations of US interest rate cuts in September and concerns about Canadian production due to wildfires limited price declines. In the first week of August, increased tension in the Middle East might exert its upward influence on Brent oil futures prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, during the fourth week of July, settlement prices remained in the same range as those of the previous week, with values above €32/MWh in most sessions. Tuesday, July 23, was the only exception. On that day, futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.62/MWh. On the other hand, on Friday, July 26, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €32.90/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.3% higher than the previous Friday.
High European reserve levels contributed to TTF gas futures settlement prices below €33/MWh in the fourth week of July. However, further problems at the Freeport liquefied natural gas export plant in the fourth week of July had an upward influence on prices. Forecasts of higher temperatures and lower wind energy production, which might increase demand for electricity generation, also contributed to the price increase at the end of the week.
As for CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, on Monday, July 22, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €64.72/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.4% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since April 11. In the following sessions, prices increased and on July 24 these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €68.41/t. In the last sessions of the fourth week of July, prices were lower, but remained above €66/t. On Friday, July 26, the settlement price was €67.87/t. This price was 2.4% higher than the previous Friday. However, the weekly average was 0.4% lower than the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets
Among the divisions of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting is AleaWhite, the division specialized in providing information on the energy sector. AleaWhite provides customized reports on the energy markets, as well as the online data platform Alea Energy DataBase, useful for analysis and research on these markets. In addition, AleaWhite is responsible for the dissemination of energy news through its weekly news digest and organizes webinars on current topics in the energy sector.
