Since the first offshore wind farm in history was installed in Denmark in 1991, and excluding China, offshore wind has historically been concentrated in Europe, specifically in certain markets in Northern Europe.
When we think of offshore wind in Europe, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and, slightly behind, France likely come to mind. In a second wave, with many installations planned for the coming years, we have Sweden, Norway, Finland, Ireland, and Poland.
Southern Europe, on the other hand, lags further behind, partly due to weaker economies and a greater reliance on floating wind—a more immature and less economically competitive technology.
Beyond Europe, things are starting to pick up in several countries: Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia… and, of course, the United States, which, despite some turbulence, has a significant project pipeline.
So, which are the emerging offshore markets to watch in the coming years? Taking advantage of the release of the Global Offshore Wind Report by GWEC and the insightful posts by Rafael Menendez from AFRY on LinkedIn (whom I recommend following), let’s do a brief analysis by country.
_
Portugal
Portugal has coastal conditions similar to those of Spain but is a step ahead in floating wind. In fact, it hosts the pre-commercial WindFloat Atlantic wind farm, which consists of three Vestas V164-8.4 MW turbines located in the Portuguese municipality of Viana do Castelo, very close to Galicia.
Moreover, according to reports in the Portuguese press and highlighted by Rui Silvano on LinkedIn, Portugal may be planning to hold an auction this very year. The auctioned capacity could reach up to 2 GW, divided into 500 MW lots.
_
Spain
As for Spain, the reality is that there have been no significant updates in recent months. Last February, a royal decree was published to regulate offshore wind auctions. But since then, there have been no further developments.
Looking into the crystal ball, everything suggests that the first auction will take place in the Canary Islands, and my guess is that it will award between 200 and 300 MW.
For those interested in more details, I’ve provided links to editions #70 and #71.
 | Windletter #71 – The regulation for offshore wind power in Spain, publishedSergio Fdez Munguía·Feb 27Read full story |
_
Italy
ItalyIn recent weeks, there have been significant movements in offshore wind in Italy. Just recently, the European Union approved an aid package from Italy for various renewable energies, including offshore wind.
The key details, summarized by Rafael Menendez, are as follows:
- A total of 3,800 MW of offshore wind will be supported.
- At least 3 auctions will be held between 2024 and 2028.
- Remuneration through a two-way contract for difference (2-way CfD), potentially indexed to inflation.
- Reference price of €185/MWh in 2024.
There have also been some news about a possible Mingyang factory in Italy, which we will discuss in future editions.
_
Greece
GreeceGreece published the law regulating offshore wind in 2022, and a year later identified 25 areas (19 floating and 6 fixed-bottom):
- 2 priority areas for fixed-bottom pilot projects, already awarded to local developers.
- 10 areas for the medium term (before 2032).
- 13 areas for the long term (after 2032).
In total, these areas have a potential of more than 12 GW.
_
India
IndiaIndia recently surpassed China as the most populous country in the world. In onshore, it is also one of the leading global powers, following China, the United States, and Germany.
Regarding offshore wind, the country currently has no offshore wind farms, but 500 MW are expected to be auctioned this year, with at least another 500 MW planned for 2025.
And much more is to come. You can find more details in this post by Rafael Menendez.
_
Brazil
BrazilBrazil is also a major player in onshore wind, ranking as the 6th largest in the world. But in offshore, they still don’t have any wind farms despite having an estimated potential of 1,200 GW, according to a DNV study for the World Bank.
The same report presents three future scenarios:
- Base Case: 16 GW by 2050, which would represent 3% of the generation mix.
- Intermediate: 32 GW by 2050, equivalent to 6% of the generation mix.
- Ambitious: 96 GW by 2050, covering almost 20% of the generation mix.
Moreover, Brazil recently announced a collaboration between the National Industrial Training Service, Dois A, Esteyco, and Goldwind to build an offshore testing center on the northern coast of Rio Grande.
This “test center” will consist of two wind turbines, one with a capacity of 16 MW and the other with 8.5 MW, which will be installed at locations with water depths of 6 to 8 meters.
_
Australia
AustraliaRecently, the Australian government granted feasibility licenses for 12 projects with a total capacity of up to 25 GW in the Gippsland area. Additionally, feasibility licenses were granted for another 2 GW, this time in the Newcastle area.
These are still preliminary licenses with a 7-year period for conducting initial studies and applying for a commercial license. As can be seen, there are still years ahead, but this demonstrates that Australia is an attractive market. In fact, nearly all the major global players are there: CIP, Corio, Iberdrola, Ocean Winds, RWE, BlueFloat Energy, Ørsted…
There are still many countries to cover (Poland, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Finland, Vietnam…), but the text is getting too lengthy… so we will discuss them in future editions.
