Photovoltaic (PV) module installations to hit 592 GW in 2024

BloombergNEF says the global PV industry will install 592 MW of modules this year, up 33% from 2023. The consultancy has also lowered its estimate for polysilicon production in 2024 as manufacturers are temporarily cutting output.
The global PV industry is on track to install 592 GW of modules this year, up 33% from 2023, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. In its “Global PV Market Outlook Q3 2024” it says “low module prices are spurring demand in new markets this year, but hurting manufacturers, who are competing intensely to maintain market share.”

The quarter-on-quarter analysis shows a 1% increase in the world’s 28 largest markets. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and India lead the largest growth, while Japan and South Africa see notable declines. More established solar markets continue to grow steadily.

The report forecasts a steady year-over-year increase in solar module installations, reaching 996 GW by 2035. BloombergNEF has also lowered its polysilicon production estimate for 2024 to 1.96 million metric tons, enough to produce 900 GW of modules.

Jenny Chase, senior solar analyst at BloombergNEF, told pv magazine that the main reason for the reduction in polysilicon production from an estimated 2.2 million tons of annual output in Q2 2024 is “that manufacturers are scheduling maintenance or using other ways to temporarily reduce production, due to low prices and oversupply.” The report states that polysilicon prices are currently $4.9/kg, below production costs for almost all manufacturers.

Meanwhile, module prices have fallen to $0.096/W, which the report said is the lowest level ever. BloombergNEF said most PV manufacturers are expected to report losses this year and warned that some will not survive this cycle.

“Systemic overcapacity in the PV supply chain has led to continued price declines,” it said. “Manufacturers are facing losses across all segments of the supply chain, from polysilicon to modules, and have responded with wage cuts, cost reductions, layoffs and even delays in payments to suppliers as they try to maintain production.”

BloombergNEF forecasts a module price below $0.10 per watt for products based on TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact) technology on the free market by the end of the year.

Patrick Jowett