In the week of August 26, prices rose in all European markets. Wind and solar energy production registered declines, while electricity demand increased in most markets. TTF gas futures prices for the Front?Month remained below €40/MWh and CO2 emission allowance futures for the reference contract of December 2024 remained around €71/t.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
In the week of August 26, solar energy production increased by 11% compared to the previous week in the German market, thus changing the trend of the last three weeks. Production using this technology behaved similarly to the previous week in the French market. On the other hand, solar energy production decreased in the Iberian and Italian markets. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest declines, with decreases of 13% and 11%, respectively, continuing the downward trend for the third consecutive week. The Italian market registered the smallest drop, with a reduction of 3.3%.
For the first week of September, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate that generation will decrease in Italy and Germany. In addition, production will increase in Spain, reversing the trend of the last three weeks.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the last week of August, wind energy production decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest decline, 47%, followed by the Portuguese and French markets, with declines of 44% and 39%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest drop, 23%. The exception was the Italian market, where wind energy production increased for the second consecutive week, this time by 34%.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts for the week of September 2 indicate that it will increase in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany. On the other hand, wind energy generation will decrease in the Italian and French markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the last week of August, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 15%, and the German market registered the smallest increase, 1.2%. In the Spanish, Portuguese, Belgian, British and French markets, increases ranged from 2.4% in the Spanish market to 5.9% in the French market. In the Belgian market, demand continued to increase for the fifth consecutive week. On the other hand, the Dutch market registered declines in demand for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.9%.
During the week of August 26, average temperatures increased in most analyzed countries. In this case, increases in average temperatures ranged from 0.8 °C in Italy and the Netherlands to 1.7 °C in Germany. Portugal and Spain registered decreases of 0.3 °C and 0.4 °C, respectively.
For the week of September 2, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the markets of Great Britain, Italy, Portugal and Germany. On the other hand, it will decrease in the markets of Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the last week of August, prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest percentage increase, 9.0%. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price rise, 82%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 22% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and 69% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the last week of August, weekly averages were above €75/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with an average of €9.06/MWh. On the other hand, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €134.35/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €78.95/MWh in the French market to €108.93/MWh in the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal.
Regarding hourly prices, the Nordic market registered negative prices on Monday, August 26. On the other hand, in the German, Belgian and Dutch markets, there were negative hourly prices on August 31 and September 1. The Belgian market registered the lowest hourly price of the last week of August, ?€53.61/MWh, on Sunday, September 1, from 13:00 to 14:00. In contrast, the Dutch and German markets registered the highest hourly prices, €278.49/MWh and €289.27/MWh, respectively, on Thursday, August 29, from 20:00 to 21:00. In the case of the German market, that price was the highest since the end of June, while in the Dutch market it was the highest price since the end of September 2023.
During the week of August 26, the increase in the weekly average gas price, as well as the increase in demand and the decrease in wind energy production in most analyzed markets, led to higher prices in the European electricity markets. The decline in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy contributed to the increase in prices in the MIBEL and IPEX markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of September, prices might continue to rise in most analyzed European markets. However, the fall in demand and the increase in solar energy production in Spain, as well as a significant rise in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, will lead to lower prices in the MIBEL market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market remained above $78/bbl during the last week of August. On Monday, August 26, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $81.43/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since August 13. But the rest of the week settlement prices were below $80/bbl. On August 28 these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $78.65/bbl. In the last session of the week, on August 30, the settlement price was slightly higher, $78.80/bbl. But this price was still 0.3% lower than the previous Friday.
In the last week of August, falling production in Libya and fears of supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict helped to keep Brent oil futures settlement prices above $78/bbl. However, demand concerns, planned production increases by OPEC+ for the last quarter of the year and expectations of lower interest rate cuts in the US exerted their downward influence on prices.
As for TTF gas futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market, settlement prices continued below €40/MWh during the last week of August. On Monday, August 26, despite the increase compared to the last session of the previous week, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €37.66/MWh. On the other hand, on Friday, August 30, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €39.82/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 8.0% higher than the previous Friday.
The decrease in supply from Norway due to maintenance work, as well as fears of gas supply disruption from Russia due to the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, exerted their upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. However, high levels of European reserves and liquefied natural gas supplies helped to keep settlement prices below €40/MWh in the last week of August.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they remained fairly stable during the last week of August, with values around €71/t. On Tuesday, August 27, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.49/t. On the other hand, on Friday, August 30, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.30/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.2% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, September 19, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will hold the 47th webinar in their monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will address energy storage, focusing mainly on batteries and green hydrogen. Moreover, it will analyze the current situation and prospects for self?consumption. On this occasion, there will also be an explanation of Aleasoft services for retailers. Xavier Cugat, Product Director at Pylontech, and Francisco Valverde, independent professional for the development of renewable energies, will participate in the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish.
