Along with the Middle East and Africa, Central and South America have the lowest projection in photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity in 2024 and 2035.
Photovoltaic energy is the technology that increases the most in new generation capacity each year, it grew 428 gigawatts in 2023 compared to 118 for wind energy, the second that adds the most watts. By the end of 2024, the installation capacity of solar panels is expected to reach 592 gigawatts worldwide, which means 33% more than what was recorded in 2023.
This growth is not uniform in the regions of the world, the research firm for the energy transition, BloombergNEF, presented its perspectives of the global photovoltaic industry for this and coming years where large imbalances by territory are evident. Central and South America, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are the regions where the least solar panel installation capacity is projected in 2024.
By 2035, when 1,000 gigawatts of installed capacity is expected to be reached worldwide, the outlook is not so different, although generation is expected to improve in the Middle East and North Africa, these groups are still the ones that contribute the most to these gigawatts.
Currently, the main generator of solar energy is China with a great advantage over the other regions, the country will generate more than 300 gigawatts of the projected capacity for this year. Then there is Europe and North America and the Caribbean, but with the projections to 2035, India would move into second place.
BloombergNEF identified growth in the industry in India and other Asian countries, such as Pakistan, throughout the first half of the year and expects this trend to continue. On the contrary, in recent months it has been seen that new installations have had a slower pace than expected in Japan and South Africa, but on a global regional scale, the report indicates that most consolidated solar markets continue to grow at a steady pace.
Solar energy in Colombia
Looking in detail at the country’s behavior within Latin America, it is found that solar energy went from having a share of 1.4% in the electricity generation matrix in 2022 to 2.54% in 2023 and so far in 2024, 767 of the 1,240 megawatts expected have come into operation, according to data from XM. Currently, the installed capacity is between 0.48 and 1.11 gigawatts and the capacity expected for 2052 is to reach between 14.5 and 30.9 gigawatts of photovoltaic energy.
To achieve these goals, the World Economic Forum, the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the Ministry of Finance and Ecopetrol estimate that an investment of between US$10.2 and US$20.3 billion is needed.
In addition, José Linares, co-founder and COO of Dapper, says that to meet the objectives, financial incentives and support policies must be offered to facilitate the installation and operation of projects, but also to address regulatory weaknesses and problems such as achieving a quorum in the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission, Creg, to avoid delays in procedures and uncertainty.
“Another factor that prevents the transition from advancing at a faster pace is dialogue with communities and social conflict. Some companies have given up on building wind and solar farms due to delays in environmental licenses and prior consultation. In some cases, feasibility studies show cost overruns caused by the blockade of local communities,” added Linares.
Energy Sector
In the global clean energy market, China also leads in new investments and the United States was the second largest market in the first half of 2024 with a 63% increase in half-year investment levels. Pakistan became the fifth largest market for new solar energy investments, while in the same period last year it was ranked 14th.
The reason for the increase this year, according to BloombergNEF, is that the price of panels has fallen to US$0.096 per watt, the lowest level in history, and polysilicon, a raw material, is below the cost of production, US$4.7 per kilogram. This has stimulated demand in new markets, which represents a greater challenge for the main manufacturers to maintain their market share.
