September starts with price rises in European electricity markets except in the Iberian market thanks to renewable energy.
In the week of September 2, prices rose in most European electricity markets. The increase in demand, together with lower solar energy production in most markets, favored this behavior. The MIBEL market was the exception, where prices fell and solar energy registered the highest September production on record. Brent futures registered the lowest settlement price since early December 2021, while CO2 and gas futures reached the lowest settlement price since late July and early August, respectively.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind energy production
In the week of September 2, solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Iberian Peninsula, reversing the trend of the last three weeks. The Spanish market, which includes solar photovoltaic energy and solar thermal energy, registered the largest increase, 7.3%, and the Portuguese market registered an increase of 0.6%. In contrast, the German, Italian and French markets registered declines in solar energy generation. The French market registered the largest decline, 35%, followed by the Italian market, which had a 20% decrease. The German market registered the smallest decline, 13%.
On Friday, September 6, the Spanish market reached the highest daily photovoltaic energy production for a September month, with a generation of 171 GWh. On the other hand, the Portuguese market had its highest daily photovoltaic energy production for a September month, 20 GWh, on the 4th.
For the week of September 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate that generation will decline in Italy and Germany. In addition, they indicate that production will increase in Spain, continuing the trend of the last week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In the week of September 2, wind energy production increased in most major European markets, reversing the trend of the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest growth, 96%, and the Spanish and German markets had increases of 23% and 21%, respectively. The French market registered the smallest increase, 6.1%. The Italian market, as an exception, registered a 34% decrease in wind energy generation.
In the week of September 9, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, production with this technology will increase in Italy, France, Spain and Germany, and it will decrease in Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of September 2, electricity demand had a heterogeneous behavior in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. In the markets of the Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany and Belgium, demand increased, coinciding with the increase in working hours after the end of the holiday period. The Dutch market registered the largest increase, 17%, followed by the British market with a rise of 12%. In the German and Belgian markets, demand rose by 3.3% and 1.1%, respectively. The German and British markets repeated the upward trend for the second consecutive week, while the Belgian market maintained this trend for the fifth week in a row.
On the other hand, in the markets of Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, demand fell, marking a change in trend compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest drop, 5.4%, and the French market had a 1.3% decrease. The Italian and Portuguese markets registered the smallest declines, 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.
During the first week of September, average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets. Average temperature decreases ranged from 0.5 °C in Great Britain and Belgium to 3.0 °C in Spain. The exceptions were Germany and the Netherlands, which registered increases of 1.2 °C and 1.8 °C, respectively.
For the second week of September, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will decrease in the markets of Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Italy and France. On the other hand, it will increase in the markets of Portugal and Great Britain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of September, average prices of the main European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exception was the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, with decreases of 13% and 14%, respectively. On the other hand, the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest percentage price increase, 4.0%. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the highest percentage price rise, 135%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 4.3% in the EPEX SPOT market of France and 19% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
In the first week of September, weekly averages were above €80/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with an average of €21.27/MWh. On the other hand, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €139.74/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €82.34/MWh in the French market to €101.95/MWh in the British market.
Regarding hourly prices, the first days had the highest prices of the week. On September 2, 3 and 4, the German and Dutch markets registered hourly prices above €250/MWh. This also happened on September 3 in the Belgian market. The German market registered the highest hourly price of the week, €656.37/MWh, on September 3 from 19:00 to 20:00. That price was the highest since the end of June in Germany. On September 3 from 20:00 to 21:00, the Dutch market reached a price of €340.00/MWh, which was the highest in that market since the end of September 2023. In the case of the Belgian market, on September 3 from 19:00 to 20:00, the price was €268.94/MWh, which was also the highest since the end of September 2023 in Belgium.
In contrast, in the first week of September, there were also negative hourly prices. The German market registered negative prices on September 5, the Belgian market on September 8 and the Dutch market on those two days. The Dutch market registered the lowest hourly price of the first week of September, ?€21.00/MWh, on Thursday, September 5, from 14:00 to 15:00.
During the week of September 2, the decline in solar energy production, as well as increased demand in some markets, contributed to the rise in European electricity market prices. However, the decrease in demand and the increase in wind and solar energy production led to lower prices in the MIBEL market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of September, prices might fall in the analyzed European electricity markets, influenced by the decrease in demand and the increase in wind energy production in most markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the first week of September, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market continued the downward trend that started at the end of the previous week. On Monday, September 2, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $77.52/bbl. As a result of the declines registered during the week, on Friday, September 6, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $71.06/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 9.8% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since December 4, 2021.
In the first week of September, concerns about the global economy and demand exerted a downward influence on Brent oil futures prices, causing prices to fall despite OPEC+’s decision to postpone its production increases until December. However, the arrival of a hurricane on the US coast of the Gulf of Mexico might influence prices upwards in the second week of September.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Monday, September 2, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €38.58/MWh. Subsequently, prices declined and on September 4 these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €35.80/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since August 6. In the last sessions of the first week of September, prices started to recover. On Friday, September 6, the settlement price was €36.48/MWh, still 8.4% lower than the previous Friday.
In the first week of September, high levels of European reserves helped to keep settlement prices below €40/MWh. However, the effects on supply due to maintenance work in Norway and weather forecasts that might imply an increase in demand led to higher TTF gas futures prices at the end of the first week of September.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, on Monday, September 2, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €70.43/t. But, from Tuesday to Thursday, settlement prices declined. On Thursday, September 5, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €66.20/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since July 24. On Friday, the settlement price was slightly higher, €66.50/t. But this price was still 5.4% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, energy storage and self?consumption
The 47th webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will take place on Thursday, September 19. On this occasion, the webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, energy storage, especially batteries and green hydrogen, as well as the current situation and prospects for self?consumption. In addition, it will include an explanation of Aleasoft services for energy retailers. Xavier Cugat, Product Director at Pylontech, and Francisco Valverde, independent professional for the development of renewable energies, will participate in the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish.
