In 2024, 23% more photovoltaic capacity will be installed than the previous year, according to a study by the think tank Ember. This technology is “growing faster than expected”, even exceeding industry forecasts.
After a record 2023 for photovoltaic energy worldwide, this year is also set to set new records, exceeding most industry forecasts. At the current rate of solar capacity installation, 593 GW would be installed globally by the end of 2024, 29% more than the previous year.
This is evident from an analysis by the energy think tank Ember published this Thursday, which recalls that the numbers are even more striking given that installed capacity already increased by 87% last year.
“Once again, solar energy is growing faster than expected, as it consolidates itself as the cheapest source of electricity in the world,” said Euan Graham, electricity data analyst at Ember.
In addition to significant growth in “established markets” such as China or the United States, others have strongly joined the solar club, including Saudi Arabia or Pakistan. In contrast, on the other hand, there is slower growth in Europe, especially in Germany and the United Kingdom. China to install 56% of global capacity
China is an exceptional case. The Asian giant alone is expected to add 334 GW by the end of the year, 56% of the world’s installed solar capacity. It thus confirms the trend of recent years: in 2023 it installed more solar panels than the entire world put into operation in 2022.
The United States is not far behind and in the first six months of the year it has increased its installation by 55% compared to the same period in 2023. In Europe, Italy stands out, with an increase of 41%, while the main European solar power, Germany, is growing at a slower pace (11%), but has still already exceeded its objective for this year and is approaching the 2026 target included in its recent new climate plan.
India, a country that is highly dependent on coal and has only recently joined the photovoltaic wave, also stands out, but has already surpassed in this first half of 2024 everything it installed last year.
To carry out these forecasts, Ember takes the data from January to July of this year for 15 countries and calculates how much will be installed in the second half if the pace is maintained. For the rest of the markets, it analyses the exports of solar panels from China – the main world producer -, calculating that these will be installed throughout 2024.
More solar capacity in 2024 than all the coal installed since 2010
The growth is so fast, they point out, that it has forced analysts to update their forecasts upwards again and again, as is the case with those of the International Energy Agency, a reference for the global energy sector and which often falls short when talking about solar energy.
This is advancing faster than other sources, such as coal, the most polluting fossil fuel and which countries have committed to leaving behind at the latest climate summits.
“This accelerated pace brings us closer to ambitious climate goals
According to the analysis, the photovoltaic capacity installed this year alone will probably exceed all the coal capacity added since 2010 (540 GW). “This accelerated pace brings us closer to ambitious climate goals, but it is necessary to continue advancing quickly to achieve the 1.5 ºC goal,” says Ember.
Among these goals is the one reached at the last climate summit in Dubai, held at the end of 2023, and in which countries agreed to triple the goal of installing renewable energy by the end of the decade so that they produce a quarter of the world’s energy.
More than a hundred countries are committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030
More than a hundred countries are committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030
Forecasts such as those from the business association SolarPower Europe or Bloomberg predict that, at this rate, it will be possible to triple solar capacity by the end of the decade and thus comply with the international agreements reached.
Solar was the energy with the most installed power in Spain in 2023
In parallel with the Ember study, another report has come to light this Wednesday, that of the photovoltaic employers’ association UNEF, in this case with data corresponding to 2023. A total of 7,489 MW were installed that year, 5.7% more than in 2022, consolidating photovoltaic energy as the technology with the most installed power in Spain, with 32,488 MW in total.
Spain, which is the second largest photovoltaic market in Europe, breaking the record for annual installation. At a global level, they say, photovoltaics was last year the most installed source of energy (renewable and non-renewable) in the world.
Agrovoltaics: when solar energy and crops complement each other instead of competing
UNEF also highlights the increase in the weight of Spanish photovoltaic energy in the energy mix, which increased by 40% last year, with an average of 13.6%.
