In the last week of September, wind energy production increased in the main European markets and registered historical daily production records for September in several markets. This favored the decline in electricity market prices, even though gas and CO2 prices increased during the week. Solar photovoltaic energy production declined in most markets with the arrival of autumn and the reduction in solar irradiation.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 23, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German and French markets registered the largest declines, 32% and 26%, respectively. The Spanish market decreased by 6.6% and the Portuguese market showed the smallest decline, 1.9%. The French and Spanish markets maintained their downward trend for the second consecutive week, while it was the third week in which the Portuguese market registered declines. In contrast, in the Italian market, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 11%, reversing the previous week’s trend.
In the week of September 30, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy production will increase in Germany and Spain, while it will decrease in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the last week of September, wind energy production increased in all major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest rise, with a 275% increase in production with this technology compared to the previous week. In Germany, Portugal, Spain and France, wind energy production rose by 60%, 50%, 29% and 24%, respectively. The French market maintained its upward trend for the fourth consecutive week.
During the week of September 23, most analyzed markets registered historical records of daily wind energy production for any September. On Thursday, September 26, the Spanish and French markets registered 344 GWh and 325 GWh of daily wind energy production, respectively, which is the highest ever for September in each of these markets. On the same day, the Portuguese market registered its third highest value for September, 84 GWh. The German market registered the daily record for September on Friday, September 27, with 967 GWh.
In the first week of October, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, production with technology will decrease in all analyzed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of September 23, the week?on?week variations in electricity demand in the main European electricity markets showed a heterogeneous trend for the second consecutive week.
The Dutch and British markets registered the highest increase in demand, 8.2% and 7.1% respectively. The German and French markets registered lower growth, 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. In the case of the French and British markets, demand grew for the second consecutive week.
In the rest of the main European electricity markets, demand fell. Demand declines were less variable and ranged from 0.5% in Belgium to 1.6% in Spain. The Portuguese and Italian markets had declines of 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively. It should be noted that demand in the Spanish and Italian markets decreased for the fourth consecutive week.
Average temperatures decreased in most analyzed markets. Declines ranged from 0.3 °C in Spain to 4.0 °C in Great Britain. The exception was Italy, where the temperature increased by 1.9 °C.
For the week of September 30, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the French, Belgian and British markets. On the other hand, it will decrease in the German, Dutch, Italian and Iberian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of September, average prices in the main European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest percentage price declines, 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price drop, 26%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 12% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands and 25% in the MIBEL market of Spain.
In the fourth week of September, weekly averages were below €70/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, with averages of €94.34/MWh and €109.57/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €19.11/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €35.15/MWh in the French market to €68.00/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding hourly prices, most analyzed markets registered negative prices in the fourth week of September. The exceptions were the Italian, Nordic and Portuguese markets. The German, Belgian, British, Spanish, French and Dutch markets reached negative hourly prices on Friday, September 27. These markets, with the exception of the British market, also registered negative prices on Sunday, September 29. The German market registered the lowest hourly price of the fourth week of September, ?€6.32/MWh, on Friday, September 27, from 13:00 to 14:00. In the case of the Italian market, there were no negative hourly prices, but on Sunday, September 29, from 13:00 to 14:00, the price, €0.97/MWh, was the lowest since April 8 in this market.
During the week of September 23, the general increase in wind energy production led to lower European electricity market prices, despite the increase in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices. Solar energy production also increased in the Italian market. In addition, in this market, as well as in the Belgian, Spanish and Portuguese markets, electricity demand decreased, contributing to the fall in prices.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of October, prices might increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the decrease in wind energy production and the increase in demand in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the fourth week of September, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered declines in most sessions but remained above $71/bbl. On Tuesday, September 24, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $75.17/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since September 3. Subsequently, prices declined. On Thursday, September 26, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $71.60/bbl. On Friday, September 27, the settlement price increased slightly to $71.98/bbl, but it was still 3.4% lower than the previous Friday.
In the fourth week of September, the OPEC+ production increase scheduled for December contributed to the fall in Brent oil futures prices, despite economic measures that might favor an increase in demand in China. On the other hand, supply concerns due to increased instability in the Middle East might support higher prices in the first week of October.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they remained above €35/MWh during the fourth week of September. Moreover, they increased in all sessions, except on Tuesday, September 24. On that day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €35.41/MWh. As a result of the upward trend of the fourth week of September, on Friday, September 27, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €38.11/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 11% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since September 3.
In the fourth week of September, forecasts of colder temperatures, which would cause demand to increase, as well as supply concerns due to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, drove TTF gas futures prices higher. On the other hand, European reserve levels are high, but in the fourth week of September the pace of reserve filling slowed as US liquefied natural gas supply was diverted to Asia, where demand was high and prices increased.
As for CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, on Tuesday, September 24, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €63.87/t. On September 25 and 26, settlement prices increased. On Thursday, September 26, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €66.52/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since September 10. On Friday, September 26, the settlement price decreased slightly to €66.33/t. However, this price was still 4.6% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing and valuation of renewable energy projects
On Thursday, October 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will hold the 48th webinar in their monthly webinar series. On this occasion, speakers from Deloitte will participate for the fifth time. The webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2024?2025, the financing of renewable energy projects and the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation.
