In the second week of October, wind energy production in most major European markets recovered after the previous week’s falls, favoring weekly price declines in most electricity markets. On an hourly basis, some markets registered negative prices, while others registered the highest prices since at least February 2024. In Italy, photovoltaic energy production reached a historic daily record for October on the 11th. Gas futures remained at similar levels compared to the previous week.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 7, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 4.2% compared to the previous week in the German market, after two weeks of declines. In contrast, the markets of Spain, Portugal, France and Italy registered declines compared to the previous week. The Spanish market had the largest drop, 38%, while the Italian market registered the smallest decline, 0.2%. In France and Portugal, the falls were 13% and 19%, respectively. The Portuguese market maintained its downward trend for the fifth consecutive week, while the Italian market repeated the same trend for the second week.
Despite the decline in photovoltaic energy production during the week, the Italian market registered a historic daily solar photovoltaic energy production record for October, 89 GWh, on Friday, October 11.
In the third week of October, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, solar energy production will increase compared to the previous week in Germany and Spain, while it will continue to decrease in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the second week of October, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the trend observed in the first week of the month. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 59%, followed by the German and Spanish markets, which showed increases of 45% and 32%, respectively. The exception was the French market, which maintained the downward trend of the previous week, decreasing by 1.4% this time.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts for the week of October 14 indicate a general decrease in wind energy production in the analyzed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of October 7, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 6.9%, due to the recovery in demand following the public holiday of Thursday, October 3, German Unity Day, celebrated the previous week. The French and Dutch markets registered the smallest increases, 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The Belgian, Italian and British markets registered increases ranging from 1.5% in Belgium to 2.3% in Great Britain. In the case of the French and British markets, demand increased for the fourth consecutive week, while in the Belgian and Dutch markets, demand increased for the second and third week, respectively.
On the other hand, demand fell in the Iberian Peninsula. The Portuguese market registered the largest decline, 4.0%, while the Spanish market registered a drop of 1.4%. In Spain, the national holiday on October 12, Hispanic Day, contributed to the decline in demand.
Average temperatures increased in most analyzed markets. Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Italy registered increases ranging from 1.0 °C in Italy to 1.9 °C in Germany. On the other hand, Great Britain, Spain and Portugal registered decreases of 1.2 °C, 1.5 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively.
For the week of October 14, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the markets of Great Britain, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain. However, demand will decline in the markets of France, Portugal, Germany and Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the second week of October, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. The exception was the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, with a 4.8% rise. The EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands registered the smallest percentage price decline, 0.9%. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price drop, 33%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 2.9% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 25% in the MIBEL market of Portugal.
In the week of October 7, weekly averages were below €75/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British market and the IPEX market of Italy, with averages of €96.94/MWh and €106.96/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €26.68/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €46.52/MWh in the French market to €73.37/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding hourly prices, on Sunday, October 13, the German, Belgian, British, French and Dutch markets registered negative hourly prices. In the case of the French market, there were also negative prices on Thursday, October 10. The German market registered the lowest hourly price of the second week of October, ?€15.69/MWh, on Sunday, from 14:00 to 15:00.
Despite the decreases in the weekly averages, the Spanish and Portuguese markets, on October 10, from 20:00 to 21:00, registered the highest price since February 21, €180.00/MWh. On October 14, from 19:00 to 20:00, the French and British markets reached their highest hourly prices since the beginning of December 2023, €161.89/MWh and £199.98/MWh, respectively.
During the week of October 7, the increase in wind energy production in most analyzed markets led to lower prices in the European electricity markets. In addition, the weekly average price of CO2 emission allowances fell compared to the previous week. Solar energy production also increased in Germany, while demand fell in the Iberian Peninsula. This also contributed to lower prices in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of October, prices will increase in European electricity markets, influenced by declining wind energy production and increasing demand in most markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the second week of October, Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered their weekly maximum settlement price, $80.93/bbl, on Monday, October 7. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since August 27. Subsequently, prices declined. As a result, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $76.58/bbl, on October 9. However, in the last two sessions of the week, settlement prices exceeded $79/bbl again. On Friday, October 11, the settlement price was $79.04/bbl, 1.3% higher than the previous Friday. The settlement price average for the week of October 7 was 4.9% higher than the previous week.
Supply concerns due to the conflict in the Middle East, as well as the effects of Hurricane Milton in the United States, exerted their upward influence on Brent oil futures prices. However, increased production in Libya and concerns about the evolution of demand contributed to the declines registered in some sessions of the second week of October. On October 8, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its demand growth forecasts for 2025.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Monday, October 7, the settlement price was €40.24/MWh, 1.8% lower than in the last session of the previous week. In the following sessions, prices continued to fall. As a result, on October 9, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €38.34/MWh. Subsequently, on Thursday, October 10, after an increase of 5.1% over the previous day, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €40.29/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the third highest so far in 2024. On Friday, prices fell again. The settlement price was €39.88/MWh, 2.7% lower than the previous Friday. The weekly average of settlement prices was slightly lower than the previous week, down 0.1%.
In the second week of October, supply concerns continued due to the conflict in the Middle East. Fears of a decline in liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar had an upward influence on settlement prices of TTF gas futures. They exceeded €40/MWh in two sessions in the second week of October, despite high European reserve levels.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they started the second week of October with price declines. On Tuesday, October 8, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €60.29/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since April 5. In contrast, on Thursday, October 10, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €65.00/t. On Friday, October 11, the settlement price was €64.62/t, 4.1% higher than the previous Friday. Despite the increases in the last sessions of the week, the average of settlement prices for the week of October 7 was 0.9% lower than the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing and valuation of renewable energy projects
On Thursday, October 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will hold the 48th webinar in their monthly webinar series. On this occasion, speakers from Deloitte will participate in the webinar for the fifth time. This webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2024?2025, the financing of renewable energy projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation.
