End of October and beginning of November marked by rising prices in European electricity markets.
In the last week of October, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, with weekly averages exceeding €80/MWh. On November 4, some markets registered their highest hourly prices of the year. Photovoltaic energy reached production records for a November day in all major European markets, while wind energy production increased in most of them. CO2 futures prices rose and gas futures prices exceeded €40/MWh for most of the week.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 28, solar photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Italian market for the second week in a row, this time by 51%. However, production with this technology fell in the German, Portuguese, Spanish and French markets. The German market registered the largest drop, 30%, maintaining its downward trend for the third consecutive week. The French market had the smallest decline, 1.6%, while the Iberian Peninsula registered declines of 22% in Spain and 26% in Portugal.
Despite the declines in photovoltaic energy production for the week, all analyzed markets registered generation records for a November day. In Italy and France, this happened on November 1, with 72 GWh and 59 GWh generated, respectively. On Saturday, November 2, the Iberian market registered record generation with this technology, 98 GWh in Spain and 13 GWh in Portugal. Finally, the German market set a solar photovoltaic energy production record for the eleventh month of the year, 131 GWh, on Sunday, November 3.
For the first week of November, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate increases in the German and Spanish markets, while the Italian market will register a decrease in production with this technology.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In the last week of October, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 54%, maintaining its upward trend for the second consecutive week. The Italian market registered the second largest increase, 29%, and the German and Spanish markets registered increases of 2.3% and 8.4%, respectively, after two weeks of declines. On the other hand, in the French market, wind energy production continued its downward trend for the fifth week, falling by 34% this time.
For the week of November 4, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate generalized declines in wind energy production in the analyzed European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of October 28, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest decrease, 9.5%, while the Portuguese market registered the smallest drop, 1.2%. In the Spanish, Belgian and German markets, demand decreased by 2.1%, 3.4% and 4.4%, respectively. In the German market, demand fell for the third consecutive week, while in the Spanish and Portuguese markets, it declined for the second week.
In contrast, demand increased in the Dutch, British and French markets. The Dutch market registered the largest rise, 9.9%, while the French and British markets were up by 2.5% and 5.0%, respectively. The Dutch market registered demand increases for the sixth consecutive week and France for the second week.
Average temperatures declined in all analyzed markets. Italy registered the largest drop in average temperatures, 2.3 °C, while Great Britain had the smallest drop, 0.2 °C. Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France registered drops ranging from 0.3 °C in Spain to 2.0 °C in France.
The All Saints’ Day holiday on November 1, which is celebrated nationally in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium, and in some regions of Germany, led to a drop in demand in most of the analyzed markets. Although November 1 is also a national holiday in France, lower average temperatures boosted demand in this market.
For the first week of November, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase across the board in the main European electricity markets analyzed compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the last week of October, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market of Italy and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with decreases of 3.1% and 11%, respectively. The EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price rise, 21%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 8.1% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 19% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the last week of October, weekly averages exceeded €80/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which registered the lowest weekly average, €10.86/MWh. In contrast, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €117.20/MWh, despite the drop in prices in this market. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €82.93/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €114.06/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Regarding hourly prices, on Monday, November 4, from 17:00 to 18:00, the German and Dutch markets registered their highest prices since September 24, €290.21/MWh and €269.76/MWh, respectively. On that day, from 18:00 to 19:00, the British market reached the highest price since December 2, 2023, £207.25/MWh, while the French market registered the second highest price of 2024 so far, €160.54/MWh.
During the week of October 28, the increase in the average price of CO2 emission allowances compared to the previous week, as well as the decrease in solar energy production in most markets, led to higher prices in the European electricity markets. In addition, although the weekly average of gas prices decreased compared to the previous week, values above €40/MWh were reached almost every day, which favored the increase in prices in the electricity markets. The increase in electricity demand in some markets also contributed to this behavior. In the case of the French market, moreover, wind energy production decreased, favoring this market to reach the highest percentage price rise.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of November, prices will continue to rise in the European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in demand and the decrease in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market started the last week of October with price declines. On Tuesday, October 29, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $71.12/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since September 12. In contrast, in the last two sessions of October, prices recovered. On Thursday, October 31, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $73.16/bbl. On Friday, November 1, there was a slight decline and the settlement price was $73.10/bbl, 3.9% lower than the previous Friday.
In the first sessions of the last week of October, concerns about the evolution of global oil demand exerted its downward influence on Brent oil futures prices. However, the decline in US reserves and the US government’s intention to replenish its strategic oil reserves, as well as expectations of a delay in OPEC+ production increases, contributed to the price recovery. Finally, on Sunday, November 3, OPEC+ announced that it was postponing planned production increases for December by one month, which will also exert its upward influence on prices in the first week of November.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they registered values above €40/MWh during most of the week. On Tuesday, October 29, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.87/MWh. From October 30 onwards, prices decreased. As a consequence of this price decline, on Friday, November 1, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €39.18/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 10% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since October 10.
High European reserve levels and abundant supply contributed to the price decline in most sessions in the last week of October.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €67.28/t, on Tuesday, October 29. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since September 4. However, in the rest of the week’s sessions, prices declined. As a result, on Friday, November 1, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €63.87/t. This price was 4.6% lower than the previous Friday. However, the average for the last week of October was 1.6% higher than the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, renewable energy project financing, batteries and hybridization
On Thursday, October 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 48th webinar in its monthly webinar series. The webinar featured speakers from Deloitte for the fifth time. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2024?2025, the webinar analyzed the financing of renewable energy projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation. Among the topics covered in the webinar was the analysis of the IRR of batteries in different spread scenarios. According to this analysis, batteries are starting to become profitable due to their falling prices, which is a turning point in the development of renewable energy through hybridization.
