In the first week of November, prices in the main European electricity markets rose, with most of their weekly averages exceeding €110/MWh. In some markets, hourly prices were the highest since 2022, and in others, the highest of this year. The increase in demand, as well as the decrease in wind energy production and photovoltaic energy production in some markets, favored the increases. In addition, gas prices continued to be among the highest of this year, above €40/MWh.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of November 4, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 21%, while in Portugal it rose by 1.1%. In the rest of the main European markets, production with this technology fell. The German market registered the largest drop, 40%, and maintained its downward trend for the fourth consecutive week. The Italian and French markets fell by 23% and 24%, respectively.
On November 6, the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached solar photovoltaic energy production records for the eleventh month of the year. Spain registered the highest historical daily production for November, 109 GWh, while Portugal reached the second highest value, 13 GWh, only behind the record achieved the previous week.
For the week of November 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate increases in the German and Spanish markets, while they expect a decrease in solar energy production in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the first week of November, wind energy production decreased in all major European markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the smallest variation, with a drop of 13%, and maintained its downward trend for the sixth consecutive week. The markets of Italy, the Iberian Peninsula and Germany registered a downward trend change, after the previous week’s increases. The Italian market registered a 28% decline, while the Portuguese and Spanish markets had declines of 33% and 37%, respectively. On this occasion, the German market registered the largest decline, 61%.
For the second week of November, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate increases in production with this technology in all analyzed European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the first week of November, electricity demand increased across the board in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 10%, with the Belgian and French markets following with increases of 9.2% and 8.0%, respectively. In the markets of Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Great Britain and Germany, demand grew between 2.0% in Spain and 7.7% in Germany. The Netherlands market registered increases in demand for the seventh consecutive week, while in Great Britain and France, it increased for the second and third week, in each case.
Average temperatures declined in most analyzed markets. Belgium registered the largest drop in average temperatures, 5.2 °C, while France had the smallest drop, 1.6 °C. Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany registered declines ranging from 2.2 °C in Great Britain to 4.8 °C in Germany. The exceptions were Spain and Portugal, where average temperatures increased by 0.7 °C and 0.9 °C, respectively.
The recovery of work activity during the week, after the November 1 holiday, when All Saints’ Day was celebrated nationally in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium, and in some regions of Germany, together with the drop in average temperatures in most Europe, favored the increase in demand in all analyzed markets.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in most major European electricity markets for the week of November 11, except in Germany and Belgium, where it will decrease compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of November, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries reached the largest percentage price increase, 198%, while the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest increase, 5.4%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 12% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 35% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the first week of November, weekly averages exceeded €110/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which registered the lowest weekly average, €32.39/MWh. In contrast, the German market reached the highest weekly average, €146.20/MWh. The last time the German market had registered the highest weekly average of the main European electricity markets was in the week of June 24. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €110.45/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €135.11/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding hourly prices, on Tuesday, November 5, from 18:00 to 19:00, the Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese markets registered a price of €193.00/MWh. This price was the highest since October 24, 2023, in the Spanish and Portuguese markets and since December 2, 2023, in the French market.
On November 6, from 17:00 to 18:00, in the German and Dutch markets, prices were €820.11/MWh and €550.00/MWh, the highest in those markets since June 27, 2024, and December 17, 2022, respectively. On that day, from 18:00 to 19:00, the Belgian and British markets reached their highest prices since December 18, 2022, €363.11/MWh and £329.09/MWh, respectively.
During the week of November 4, the increase in electricity demand and the decrease in wind energy production led to higher prices in European electricity markets. The decline in solar energy production in most analyzed markets also contributed to the price increase. In addition, although gas prices were slightly lower than the previous week, they remained around €40/MWh or even above, among the highest levels registered this year. In the case of the MIBEL market, the scheduled shutdown of the Ascó I nuclear power plant since November 4 for refueling, which has reduced nuclear energy production, was also a factor in the increase.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of November, prices will decrease in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market increased in most sessions of the first week of November. On Thursday, November 7, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $75.63/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since October 26. However, on Friday, November 8, there was a 2.3% decline from the previous day. As a result, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $73.87/bbl. However, this price was still 1.1% higher than the previous Friday.
OPEC+’s decision to postpone its production increases meant that the first week of November began with price increases. The upward trend continued for most of the week. However, the increase in US oil reserves and Donald Trump’s election victory contributed to slightly lower prices on November 6. However, the decline in production in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Rafael allowed the settlement price to return to above $75/bbl on Thursday, November 7. The decreased danger associated with this hurricane contributed to the price drop at the end of the week. On the other hand, concerns about demand evolution following the release of weak economic data from China over the weekend might exert a downward influence on prices during the second week of November.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Monday, November 4, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.30/MWh. In most sessions of the first week of November, prices increased. As a result, on Friday, November 8, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.41/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 8.3% higher than the previous Friday. Despite the increases, the weekly average of settlement prices was 0.6% below the previous week’s average.
The danger of disruptions in liquefied natural gas supply from the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Rafael contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices in the first week of November. The prospect of demand increases due to lower temperatures also contributed to price increases. Thus, despite the high levels of European reserves, settlement prices remained above €40/MWh during the first week of November.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, on Monday, November 4, these futures registered a settlement price of €65.22/t, 2.1% higher than the previous Friday. Settlement prices declined in the following sessions and on November 6 these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €63.76/t. However, prices rose again on Thursday and Friday. As a result, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €68.02/t, on Friday, November 8. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 6.5% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since September 4. However, the weekly average of settlement prices was slightly lower than that of the last week, down 0.1%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, batteries, hybridization and storage
On Thursday, November 14, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 49th webinar of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the guest speaker will be Luis Marquina de Soto, president of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2024?2025, the webinar will analyze the prospects for batteries, hybridization and energy storage. AleaSoft services for battery and hybridization projects will also be presented.
