Will Donald Trump slow down the expansion of photovoltaic (PV)?

The research firm Wood Mackenzie published an analysis on what the impact of the Republican victory should be. The renewable capacity of the United States will grow by more than 240 GW by 2030.
Renewable energy technologies in the United States will remain competitive for the next four years despite the uncertainties generated by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. This is the assessment of the latest report published by Wood Mackenzie, a company specializing in energy market analysis.
In a publication on the company’s website, the director of Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition practice, David Brown, noted that the Trump Administration will not change the demand for solar photovoltaic in the US in the short term.

“The United States is likely to adopt lighter standards on emissions regulations, more protectionist trade policies and withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, which would move US policy away from a net-zero emissions trajectory,” Brown wrote.

However, according to the executive, bipartisan support for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in Congress, competitive economics for renewables, and net-zero private sector goals “will not hinder the energy transition in the country.”

In total, 18 Republican congressmen spoke out against the repeal of the IRA and more than $220 billion in investments. “The probability of a complete repeal of the IRA is low. However, there may be some changes in the legislation,” he stressed.

In total, Wood Mackenzie predicts that investment in renewable energy in the United States may even slow, but that capacity is expected to grow by more than 240 GW between 2024 and 2030, even in a bad energy transition scenario.

In his publication, Brown highlights that he expects Trump to support the growth aspirations of big technology in the country, since the trend is for data centers to become an important feature of the future.

Today, data-dependent companies like Meta, Google, and Amazon have already signed large, long-term deals with some of the largest solar developers in the United States. “We have identified more than 51 GW of new data center announcements since 2023.”

According to Wood Mackenzie, there is currently no shortage of demand for solar PV in the United States, as the country has a contracted project pipeline of nearly 100 GW.

“A Trump administration will not change this in the near term. We expect stable growth in installations in the coming years, despite high demand for solar, driven primarily by bottlenecks in interconnection and transmission,” Brown stressed.

Despite optimistic projections, the executive acknowledges that the growth of the US solar sector is at risk if the IRA undergoes substantial changes.

This week, Trump named Chris Wright, CEO of the multi-billion-dollar oil services company Liberty Energy, as his new Secretary of Energy, something that could change the role and composition of the US energy department.

https://www.woodmac.com