Lithium carbonate prices declined in December, while SC6 prices rebounded after fluctuations
Spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at RMB 74,000-77,000/MT as of December 31. The average price was RMB 76,000/MT at the end of the month, down 2.6% MoM. CIF prices for Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6) came in at USD 810-860/MT, averaging USD 835/MT by month-end, up 3.7% MoM.
Since December, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have been declining, while spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices have fluctuated upward. Both the demand and supply sides for battery-grade lithium carbonate performed well this month. On the demand side, the new energy vehicles (NEV) market remained robust, energy storage export orders were strong, and downstream cathode material manufacturers maintained solid production schedules in December. As a result, lithium carbonate demand stayed resilient, with the peak season extending longer than expected. On the supply side, growth momentum was equally positive. Increased output from lepidolite- and spodumene-based lithium carbonate contributed to higher overall production of battery-grade lithium carbonate. This alleviated short-term supply-demand imbalances, leading to a modest inventory buildup for battery-grade lithium carbonate starting in December. Overall inventory levels remain elevated, however, causing the industry to continue facing inventory pressure. As the short-term supply-demand imbalance for battery-grade lithium carbonate eases, prices have started to decline.
Overseas mining companies are attempting to sustain prices. This month, spodumene concentrate prices did not follow the trend of battery-grade lithium carbonate; instead, they began to rise after stabilizing. Cost pressures have limited the battery-grade lithium carbonate prices from further declines, with strong support still near the average price at the end of December. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, downstream inventory buildup intentions have weakened, and procurement strategies have become more conservative. If orders from cell manufacturers decrease, short-term demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate may experience a slight and temporary decline, with low possibility of a significant price rebound. Prices are expected to fluctuate around RMB 75,000/MT.
Energy-storage cell price
Average prices for LFP cells in China stabilized at the bottom
Prices for LFP cells in China stabilized at the bottom in December. As of December 31, the after-tax price range for 280Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.25-0.34/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.30/Wh, the same as last month. The price range for 314Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.25-0.35/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.30/Wh, down 1.6% MoM. The after-tax price range for 100Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.31-0.36/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.335/Wh, down 1.5% MoM.
Although demand for energy storage cells maintained rapid growth in 2024, factors such as declining raw material prices and overcapacity caused the cell prices to continue falling. To capture greater market share, cell companies have engaged in intense price competition, driving average prices closer to cost thresholds. Furthermore, downstream customers have implemented stringent cost controls, with some bidding projects this year setting maximum price limits for energy storage cells.
Throughout the year, the after-tax average price of 280Ah LFP cells declined from RMB 0.42/Wh in January to RMB 0.30/Wh in December, representing a 29% drop. Starting from 2Q24, the production scale of 314Ah LFP cells gradually expanded, with both shipment volumes and market penetration rates steadily increasing. The after-tax average price of 314Ah cells fell from RMB 0.38/Wh in April to RMB 0.30/Wh in December, marking a 21% decrease, bringing its price nearly on par with that of 280Ah cells. Small-capacity cells also experienced a downward pricing trend, with the after-tax average price of 100Ah LFP cells dropping from RMB 0.415/Wh in April to RMB 0.335/Wh in December, a 19% decline. The significant price reductions of LFP cells this year have further squeezed profit margins for some cell manufacturers. Toward the end of 2024, the industry has been actively exploring ways to overcome the challenges of price competition, with the downstream market placing greater emphasis on product safety and performance. This trend may drive cell manufacturers to focus on technological upgrades, process improvements, product innovation, and brand development. These efforts aim to foster healthier and more sustainable industry growth.
Given the current market oversupply, the price war for energy storage cells is expected to continue in 2025. Although companies may reduce costs through technological and product upgrades, the overall price decline for cells is likely to narrow in 2025, considering the limited room for further price reductions in upstream raw materials.
Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Database 2024
Database contains the global lithium-ion battery market supply and demand analysis, focusing on the cell segment in the ESS sector. We compile detailed data on various businesses’ capacity, production, and shipments, as well as segmenting the market applications such as FTM, BTM-C&I, and BTM-Residential.
