China exported 15.2 GW of modules in November 2024, down 12% MoM from 17.34 GW and down 14% YoY from 17.71 GW, according to InfoLink’s customs data. China exported 219.31 GW of modules from January to November 2024, up 14% YoY from 191.81 GW.
In November 2024, the top five largest markets importing Chinese modules were, in order, Brazil, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Spain, with monthly imports making up 41% of the global total. Regionally, the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets saw growth, driven by increased procurement from Pakistan and Brazil, respectively. In contrast, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa experienced varying degrees of decline.
Europe
Europe imported 4.1 GW of Chinese modules in November 2024, down 41% MoM from 7 GW and down 16% YoY from 4.87 GW. Europe accumulated 88.78 GW of module imports from January to November 2024, down 8% YoY from 96.43 GW.
The top five importers in November 2024 were the Netherlands, Spain, Slovenia, Portugal, and Greece. Nearly all European countries, including the Netherlands, showed declines in module imports. The drop aligns with the seasonal slowdown in module procurement during Q4 in Europe, making November’s import volume fall within normal expectations.
In addition, high inventory levels continue to impact the European market, exacerbated by weak economic performance, low power generation returns, and slower installation rates. These factors have dampened demand, prompting manufacturers to offload inventory and manage stock levels since late October.
Considering the Christmas holiday season in December, monthly import volumes are unlikely to exceed 5 GW. Overall, Europe’s total module imports for 2024 are projected at 91-94 GW, marking a decline from 2023’s 101.48 GW.
Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific imported 5.1 GW of modules from China in November 2024, up 17% MoM from 4.34 GW but down 37% YoY from 8.1 GW. The region imported 63.55 GW of modules in total from January to November 2024, up 34% YoY from 47.37 GW.
In November 2024, Pakistan led the Asia-Pacific market in Chinese module imports, reaching 1.12 GW, up 334% MoM from 0.26 GW, making up 22% of the region’s total imports. From January to November 2024, Pakistan imported 15.97 GW of Chinese modules.
The surge in November imports primarily compensated for the volume gaps from September and October. Pakistan’s December import momentum may remain around 1 GW. However, for 2025, there is cautious optimism about Pakistan’s solar demand due to potential changes in the net-metering tariff policy, which could impact distributed project demand.
In November 2024, India ranked third in the Asia-Pacific market for Chinese module imports, following Japan, with 0.55 GW, accounting for 11% share of the region’s total imports, down 35% MoM from 0.84 GW. From January to November 2024, India imported 15.5 GW of Chinese modules.
India imported about 26.31 GW of Chinese cells during the same period. In the long term, as India continues to expand its domestic module capacity and with the release of the ALMM in early December 2024, which includes only Indian manufacturers, the volume of Chinese module exports to India will likely drop.
The Americas
The Americas imported 3.2 GW of modules from China in November, up 23% MoM from 2.61 GW and up 4% YoY from 3.08 GW last November. From January to November, cumulative shipments to the Americas reached 30.12 GW, representing a 9% YoY increase from 27.52 GW.
In November, Brazil accounted for the largest share of Chinese module imports in the Americas, with 1.98 GW imported in total, up 16% MoM from 1.7 GW, representing 62% of the region’s total imports. From January to November, Brazil imported a total of 20.39 GW of Chinese modules.
Brazil implemented the second phase of its tariff rate quota in July 2024 (effective from July 2024 to June 2025). From July to November, Brazil imported modules worth USD 920 million, using up 91% of the total USD 1.01 billion. Most manufacturers stopped shipments by mid-December, dropping shipment volume. The duty-free import quota will be used up by the end of 2024, and a 25% tariff will be applied to module exports to Brazil, which will negatively impact demand in 2025.
The Middle East and Africa
The Middle East imported 1.7 GW of modules from China in November, down 24% MoM from 2.23 GW and up 47% YoY from 1.16 GW. The region accumulated 26.82 GW from January to November, up 107% YoY from 12.96 GW.
Among the countries in the region, Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share, importing 0.95 GW of Chinese modules in November, down 37% MoM from 1.5 GW, accounting for 56% of the region’s total imports. The country imported 15.35 GW of modules from China during the January-November period.
Africa imported 1.12 GW of modules from China in November, down 6% MoM from 1.19 GW and up 118% YoY from 0.51 GW last November. The region accumulated 10.05 GW from January to November, up 33% YoY from 7.54 GW.
Among African countries, South Africa accounted for the largest share, importing 0.27 GW of modules in November, down 52% MoM from 0.57 GW, accounting for 24% of the region’s total imports. South Africa imported 3.53 GW of modules from January to November.
China’s module exports declined in November due to Europe’s off-season in Q4, India’s ALMM and focus on local capacity, and the nearing depletion of Brazil’s duty-free import quota, with a possible further drop in December. In 2024, exports may reach 230-235 GW, up 10-13% from 208 GW in 2023, though slower than the 34% growth from 2022 to 2023. InfoLink has revised its 2024 global demand forecast to 491-537 GW.
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