In the second week of 2025, gas prices, wind energy and demand again marked a mixed evolution in the main European electricity markets. Declining gas prices and increased wind energy production drove prices down in some markets, while in others, rising demand favored the increase in prices. In the British N2EX market, on January 10 the price, €272.43/MWh, was the highest since mid?December 2022. France reached the highest values in the history of photovoltaic and wind energy production for a January day.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of January 6, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German and French markets, reversing the trend of the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 33%, while the French market reached an increase of 16%. On the other hand, the Iberian and Italian markets registered decreases in generation with this technology for the second consecutive week. On this occasion, the Spanish market registered the smallest drop, 2.8%, while the Portuguese and Italian markets registered declines of 22% and 24%, respectively.
On Sunday, January 12, the French and Portuguese markets reached records for solar photovoltaic energy production. The French market registered its highest value of solar photovoltaic energy generation for a month of January, 51 GWh. In the case of the Portuguese market, it reached its third highest value of photovoltaic energy production for a January in history, 12 GWh, after those registered on the first and second day of the year.
In the week of January 13, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, solar energy production will increase in the markets of Germany, Italy and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the second week of 2025, wind energy production increased in all major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 153%, while the German market had the smallest growth, 0.6%. The French and Iberian markets registered increases of 11% in France, 41% in Portugal and 94% in Spain. Most markets maintained an upward trend in wind energy generation for the second week in a row, with the exception of Italy, where wind energy production had fallen in the first week of the year.
On Monday, January 6, the French market reached its highest value of wind energy production for a month of January in history, generating 416 GWh with this technology.
For the third week of 2025, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, production will decline in all major analyzed European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of January 6, electricity demand increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The British market led the rises with a 22% increase, and the Italian and German markets followed with increases of 18% and 15%, respectively. The Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese and Belgian markets also registered increases, with variations ranging from 6.1% in Spain to 13% in Belgium. The French market registered the smallest growth, 1.7%. Most analyzed markets increased their demand for the second consecutive week, with the exception of the Dutch market.
In the second week of 2025, average temperatures were higher than those registered in the previous week in most analyzed markets. Increases ranged from 1.3 °C in Germany to 3.6 °C in Spain. In contrast, the markets of the Netherlands, Belgium and Great Britain registered decreases in average temperatures of 0.7 °C, 1.4 °C and 3.5 °C, respectively.
For the third week of the year, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will continue to increase in the markets of the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Belgium, while it will decrease in the markets of Portugal and Great Britain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the second week of January, average prices of the main European electricity markets showed heterogeneous behavior again. On the one hand, in the EPEX SPOT market of France, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal and the IPEX market of Italy, prices fell compared to the previous week. Price declines ranged from 0.5% in the French market to 25% in the Iberian market. On the other hand, in the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 10% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands and 44% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
In the week of January 6, weekly averages exceeded €85/MWh in almost all analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which registered the lowest average, €50.50/MWh. The Italian and British markets reached the highest weekly averages, €131.11/MWh and €152.37/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €85.19/MWh in the Spanish market to €99.99/MWh in the Dutch market.
The highest daily price reached in the analyzed markets in the second week of January was €272.43/MWh, GBP228.54/MWh, in the British market on January 10. This was the highest price in that market since December 18, 2022.
The decrease in the weekly average gas price and the increase in wind energy production led to lower prices in the Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese markets in the week of January 6. In contrast, the increase in electricity demand contributed to the price increases registered in the rest of the analyzed markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of January, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in demand and the fall in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered price increases in most sessions of the second week of January. As a result, on Friday, January 10, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $79.76/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.2% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since October 8, 2024.
The strong dollar and negative economic news from Germany and the United States contributed to settlement prices remaining below $77/bbl in most sessions of the second week of January. However, increased demand due to cold temperatures, as well as the prospects of further sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, led to higher Brent oil futures prices, which surpassed $79/bbl at the end of the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Tuesday, January 7, they registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €47.47/MWh. Subsequently, prices declined. As a result, on Thursday, January 9, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €44.99/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since December 21, 2024. On Friday, January 10, the settlement price registered a slight increase from the previous day, standing at €45.01/MWh. This price was still 9.1% lower than the previous Friday.
In the second week of January, TTF gas futures prices declined influenced by forecasts of milder temperatures. However, European reserve levels and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may favor the price recovery in the third week of January.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they started the second week of January with price declines. On January 8, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €72.17/t. Subsequently, prices increased again. On Friday, January 10, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €74.85/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 1.4% lower than the previous Friday. As a result of the settlement price variations during the week, the weekly average was similar to that of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage, hybridization, PPA and renewable energy
On Thursday, January 16, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 51st webinar of its monthly webinar series, together with speakers from PwC Spain, who will participate in these webinars for the fifth time. The main topics to be analyzed during the webinar include the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the prospects for energy storage and hybridization, industry electrification, the current state of regulation on PPA and renewable energy, as well as virtual PPA and FPA (Flexibility Purchase Agreements).
