China’s wind turbine exports set to rise to 100 GW

According to data from analyst firm Brinkmann, Chinese wind turbine exports are expected to grow from just under 10 GW over the past 12 years to more than 100 GW over the next decade.
Brinckmann predicts that Goldwind and Envision will dominate overseas sales of onshore units over the next decade.
Asia, the Middle East and Africa will be the main export markets, with a major push into the South American market over the next decade.

Goldwind and Envision are expected to dominate Chinese onshore wind turbine exports between 2024 and 2034, accounting for almost 90% of Chinese OEMs’ onshore wind exports.

Brinckmann predicts limited penetration by Chinese turbine manufacturers into mature European markets and the US over the next decade.

The study also found that Vestas is expected to maintain its lead outside of China, which is underpinned by its technological leadership, broad geographic reach and development pipeline.

Meanwhile, Nordex is well positioned to significantly increase its market share over the next decade, leveraging its advanced technology offerings and competitive pricing.

This growth is further supported by the challenges Siemens Gamesa faces with its 4.X and 5.X platforms and GE Vernova’s strategic shift to prioritise the US market.

In offshore wind, Siemens Gamesa is expected to maintain its lead outside of China.

As the first Western OEM to install a prototype offshore wind turbine of more than 20 MW, Brinckmann expects the manufacturer to “force its peers to follow suit” in order to secure market shares after 2030.

Vestas’ installations are expected to increase significantly due to its V236 model and keep pace, provided they match Siemens Gamesa’s technological development.

GE Vernova is expected to have small installation volumes in the short to medium term, but is expected to re-enter the market in 2030, subject to the introduction of new competitive wind technology.