In the fourth week of October, TTF gas futures prices increased, reaching values not seen since November 2023. CO2 futures also rose. Wind energy production declined in most markets and demand increased in some markets. All these factors led to higher prices in most major European electricity markets. On October 22, photovoltaic energy registered the highest production for an October day in Portugal.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 21, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 30%, while the Italian market had the smallest increase, 0.2%. The Spanish and French markets registered increases of 15% and 16%, respectively. On this occasion, the Iberian Peninsula markets registered increases for the second consecutive week, while the French and Italian markets reverersed their trends after registering declines during the last two and three weeks, respectively. The German market was the exception, as solar photovoltaic energy production fell by 10%, maintaining the same trend as the previous week.
On the other hand, the Portuguese market registered three records for solar photovoltaic energy production for October during the week. On Monday, October 21, it registered the third highest value for October, 15 GWh. On the following two days, it registered the first and second highest values for October, close to 16 GWh in both cases.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, during the week of October 28, solar energy production will increase in Italy, while it will decrease in the Spanish and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the fourth week of October, wind energy production increased by 1.6% compared to the previous week in the Portuguese market. The rest of the main European markets registered decreases in production with this technology. The French market had the largest drop, 42%, and the Spanish market registered the smallest drop, 22%. The German and Italian markets registered declines of 25% and 37%, respectively. Regarding the downward trend, the French market maintained its decline for the fourth week, while the German, Italian and Spanish markets registered a decline for the second consecutive week.
For the week of October 28, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts point to declines in production with this technology in the French, Portuguese, Italian and German markets. On the other hand, production with this technology will increase in the Spanish market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of October 21, electricity demand increased in several of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 2.2%, followed by the increases in the Belgian and Dutch markets, 1.4% and 1.3%, in the same order. The French market registered the smallest increase, 0.9%. In the Belgian and Dutch markets, demand increased for the third and fourth consecutive week, respectively.
On the other hand, demand fell in the Italian, German, Spanish and British markets. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 1.9%, while the British market had the smallest decline, 0.1%. In Spain demand decreased by 0.8% and in Germany it fell for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.2%.
Average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets. The Netherlands, Belgium, Great Britain, France, Portugal and Spain registered drops ranging from 0.6 °C in the Netherlands to 2.4 °C in Spain. On the other hand, Italy and Germany registered increases in average temperatures of 0.2 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively.
For the week of October 28, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will fall in the markets of Italy, Portugal, Belgium, France, Germany and Spain. The holiday of November 1, All Saints’ Day, which is celebrated in most analyzed European markets, will contribute to declines in electricity demand during the week. However, forecasts indicate that demand will increase in the British and Dutch markets compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of October, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a drop of 46%. The IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest percentage price increase, 4.1%. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest rise, 34%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 10% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 32% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the fourth week of October, weekly averages exceeded €70/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which registered the lowest weekly average, €12.21/MWh. In contrast, the German, British and Italian markets reached the highest weekly averages, €100.24/MWh, €105.44/MWh and €120.90/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €70.72/MWh in the French market to €98.53/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding hourly prices, some European markets registered negative prices on Monday, October 21. The German, Belgian, British, Dutch and Nordic markets registered negative hourly prices in the early hours of Monday morning. In the case of the British market, there were negative prices during the first six hours of that day. In addition, this market reached the lowest hourly price of the fourth week of October, ?£7.01/MWh, on Monday from 3:00 to 4:00. This hourly price was the lowest in the British market since August 26.
During the week of October 21, the increase in the weekly average price of gas and CO2 emission allowances compared to the previous week, as well as the decrease in wind energy production in most markets, led to higher prices in the European electricity markets. The increase in electricity demand in several markets also contributed to this behavior.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will fall in some European electricity markets in the last week of October, influenced by the decrease in demand. However, prices will increase in the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, as well as in the Belgian and British markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market fluctuated around $75/bbl during the fourth week of October. On Monday, October 21, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $74.29/bbl. In contrast, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $76.05/bbl, on Friday, October 25. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.1% higher than the previous Friday.
In the fourth week of October, fears of supply problems due to the conflict in the Middle East exerted an upward influence on prices. However, demand concerns continued despite the Chinese government’s measures to support the country’s economy. This contributed to the price declines registered in some sessions of the fourth week of October.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, during the fourth week of October, they registered an upward trend and exceeded €40/MWh. On Monday, October 21, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.02/MWh. As a consequence of the price increases, on Friday, October 25, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €43.51/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 11% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since November 28, 2023.
In the fourth week of October, fears about the effects of the Middle East conflict on the supply drove TTF gas futures prices higher despite high European reserve levels.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, after a 0.8% drop compared to the last session of the previous week, on Monday, October 21, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €61.76/t. However, in the rest of the week’s sessions, prices increased. As a result, on Friday, October 25, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €66.97/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 7.5% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since September 5.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, renewable energy project financing, batteries and hybridization
The 48th webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting took place on October 17. The webinar featured speakers from Deloitte for the fifth time. The topics covered included the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2024?2025, the financing of renewable energy projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation. In particular, the webinar analyzed the IRR of batteries in different spread scenarios. Batteries are starting to become profitable due to falling prices. This marks a turning point in the development of renewable energy through hybridization.
