In nine years, the share of photovoltaic plants in the global energy matrix has grown from 1% to 6%. Which countries are pioneers in the transition to renewable energies?
As global demand for electricity grows, the share of the Sun in the energy matrix is ??increasing. Although the preference is still for coal (35%) and natural gas (22%), while in 2015 solar energy represented only 1%, in 2024 this percentage will reach 6%, a clearly upward trend.
In 2023, photovoltaic plants will be built all over the planet with a total capacity of 447 gigawatts (GW). According to the SolarPower confederation, in just one year global solar production increased by 38%, to 1,624 GW.
Much more modest was the expansion of wind (117 GW) and coal (70 GW) plants inaugurated in the same period, especially in China and India. In the hydroelectric (+7 GW), natural gas (+6 GW) and biomass (+4 GW) sectors, the increase was even smaller. In turn, nuclear power capacity fell by 2 GW in 2023 as more old plants were closed.
According to SolarPower Europe, photovoltaics will experience even stronger global growth in the next five years, reaching up to 20% more plants per year. The organization forecasts a total of 5,117 GW installed by 2028, surpassing the 4,930 GW produced by all coal, gas and oil plants combined.
Shichengzi solar power plant in the Xinjiang Uygur region: China still relies heavily on coal, but is increasingly investing in solar energy. Foto: Hu Huhu/Xinhua/dpa/picture alliance
Cost of solar energy continues to fall
Prices for photovoltaic modules have fallen dramatically, mainly due to mass production in Chinese factories, reducing the cost of solar energy worldwide by 80% in the last 15 years. In most regions it is already the cheapest alternative.
In sunny areas, it is possible to generate electricity in a photovoltaic park at a cost of 0.035 to 0.054 euros per kilowatt/hour, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE). In countries such as Germany, where there is little sun, the cost is 0.041 to 0.069 euros per kilowatt hour, but this is still much less than half of the energy that comes from new nuclear, gas or coal-fired power plants.
The expansion of photovoltaics is notable in Asia, and especially in China, where new solar parks added 253 GW to the energy mix in 2023, increasing total national capacity to 656 GW. Another 299 GW will be added in 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that solar installations cover 10% of Chinese demand.
Currently, the country still obtains 61% of its electricity from coal-fired plants, making it one of the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the British think tank Ember estimates that fossil fuels will lose importance in China thanks to the boom in solar energy.
The phenomenon was also observed in other countries in 2023: Australia increased its solar production by 36 GW, raising the share of this source to 15%. In Japan and India, solar capacity is 90 GW: 12% and 11% of national demand, respectively. With 9 GW, 20% of Chile’s electricity comes from photovoltaics. In Brazil, with 39 GW, the share is 11%; in the USA (173 GW) and Mexico (11 GW) it is 6%.
In total, the European Union will reach a solar capacity of 269 GW in 2023, or around 10% of total demand. With 21%, Spain (36 GW), the Netherlands (33 GW) and Greece (7 GW) lead the largest share of photovoltaics in their energy mix, followed by Germany (92 GW = 14%), Poland (17 GW = 12%) and Bulgaria (4 GW = 11%).
50 times more solar energy by 2050?
Although the photovoltaic potential is especially high in sunny regions such as Africa and the Middle East, relatively little is explored in these regions. However, SolarPower Europe predicts a change soon, with capacity at these sites almost fivefold by 2028, from 48 GW to 222 GW.
Israel (4 GW) produces 15% of its electricity from the sun. Turkey (11 GW), South Africa (6 GW) and the United Arab Emirates (5 GW) cover 7% of their respective energy needs through photovoltaics. It is only 2% of the oil capacity of Saudi Arabia (3 GW).
To supply the entire Earth with low-cost renewable energy, solar energy would play a key role. A study published by the journal Science estimates the necessary capacity at 104,000 GW, 50 times more than is currently available. Some experts consider this target to be feasible by 2050, or even much earlier, if the pace of the transition is accelerated.
However, a United Nations report recalls that it is necessary to simultaneously eliminate CO2 from the atmosphere, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve the objective stipulated in the Paris Climate Agreement, to limit global warming to 1.5º C.
Gero Rueter, www.dw.com
