In the third week of November, average prices in most major European electricity markets declined compared to the previous week. On Sunday, November 24, several markets registered the lowest daily price since at least the last three months. High wind energy production, which during the week reached historical or November records in the main European markets, favored price declines and slowed the effect of the price rise of gas, whose futures registered the highest price for more than a year.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of November 18, solar photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Spanish and German markets. In Spain, the increase was 1.1%, while Germany registered a 34% rise after five weeks of declines. In contrast, the Portuguese, Italian and French markets registered declines in production with this technology. The Portuguese market registered the smallest drop, 13%, and maintained its downward trend for the second week. The Italian and French markets registered declines of 17% and 24%, respectively.
For the week of November 25, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate increases in the Italian, Spanish and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the third week of November, wind energy production increased in most major European markets, maintaining the upward trend for the second consecutive week. The French market registered the largest increase, 145%, followed by increases in the German market, 85%, and the Italian market, 61%. The Spanish market registered the smallest increase, 36%. On the other hand, the Portuguese market registered a downward trend change, with a 15% decrease in production with this technology.
During the week, wind energy production reached historical generation records or records for the month of November in all analyzed markets. The markets of the Iberian Peninsula and France achieved historical wind energy production records. The Spanish market reached a production of 433 GW on Thursday, November 21, while the Portuguese and French markets registered their highest generation values on Sunday, November 24, with 110 GW and 441 GW, respectively. On the same day, the German market set a production record for November, with 1005 GW. Finally, the Italian market reached the second highest value for November, with 174 GW generated on the 20th.
For the fourth week of November, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate decreases in production with this technology in most analyzed European markets, except in the Portuguese market, where it will increase.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the third week of November, electricity demand increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest increase, 8.9%, and continued its upward trend for the fifth week. The Spanish, Portuguese, German and Italian markets registered increases for the third consecutive week, ranging from 0.7% in Spain to 4.3% in Italy. The markets of the Netherlands, Belgium and Great Britain registered an upward reversal of the previous week’s declines. The British market registered the second largest increase of the week, 8.1%, while the Dutch and Belgian markets registered increases of 3.0% and 5.6%, respectively.
Average temperatures declined in most analyzed markets. The Netherlands had the largest drop in average temperatures, 4.4 °C, while France had the smallest drop, 0.9 °C. Germany, Belgium and Great Britain registered decreases, ranging from 2.1 °C in Germany to 3.3 °C in Great Britain. On the other hand, in the Iberian Peninsula, average temperatures increased by 0.9 °C in Spain and 1.1 °C in Portugal. In Italy, temperatures remained similar to those of the previous week.
For the last week of November, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will decrease in most major European electricity markets, except in Spain, Germany and Italy, where it will increase compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the third week of November, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market of Italy and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with increases of 2.2% and 82%, respectively. The EPEX SPOT market of Germany reached the largest percentage price drop, 22%, while the N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest decline, 8.3%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 9.0% in the MIBEL market of Spain and 20% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the third week of November, weekly averages exceeded €90/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic market and the French market, which registered the lowest averages, €54.58/MWh and €88.47/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €135.78/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €93.14/MWh in the Spanish market to €109.34/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, November 24, they were below €14/MWh in most analyzed markets, except in the British and Italian markets. High wind energy production, together with lower demand on Sunday, led to these low prices in the European electricity markets. On that day, the German market registered the lowest price, €3.97/MWh. That price was the lowest in Germany since May 13. In the case of the Spanish and Portuguese markets, on Sunday prices were the lowest since June 3. The Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered their lowest prices since July 7, while the British market reached its lowest price since August 26.
In the week of November 18, despite the increase in demand and the rise in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, the increase in wind energy production in most analyzed markets led to a fall in prices in the European electricity markets. In the case of the German market, solar energy production also increased, which contributed to the fact that this market registered the largest percentage price drop.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of November, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the fall in wind energy production and the increase in demand in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered price increases in almost every session of the third week of November, except for the 20th. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $72.81/bbl. As a result of the week’s upward trend, on Friday, November 22, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $75.17/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 5.8% higher than the previous Friday.
In the third week of November, the evolution of the Russia?Ukraine conflict drove Brent oil futures prices higher. Expectations of an increase in imports from China also contributed to this behavior.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they started the third week of November with price increases, but on Tuesday, November 19, prices declined. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €45.67/MWh. Subsequently, prices increased again. On Thursday, November 21, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €48.30/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since November 3, 2023. After a 2.7% drop from the previous day, on Friday, November 22, the settlement price was €47.02/MWh, still 1.0% higher than the previous Friday.
Concerns about gas supplies from Russia favored the increase in TTF gas futures prices in the third week of November.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they remained above €68/t during the third week of November. On Tuesday, November 19, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €68.13/t. In contrast, on Thursday, November 21, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €69.99/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since September 3. On Friday, November 22, prices fell by 1.0% compared to Thursday and the settlement price was €69.27/t, still 1.9% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and energy storage
The 49th webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting took place on Thursday, November 14. On this occasion, the webinar featured the participation of Luis Marquina de Soto, president of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar analyzed the prospects for batteries, hybridization and energy storage, taking into account their fundamental role during the energy transition. AleaSoft services for battery and hybridization projects were also explained.
