In the last week of November, prices in most major European electricity markets increased and registered weekly averages above €100/MWh. The main causes of this increase were lower wind energy production and higher gas prices. Solar photovoltaic energy production was higher than the previous week and reached the second highest value for a November day in Germany. Electricity demand declined in most markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of November 25, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 46%, while the Spanish market registered the smallest increase, 4.1%. Both markets continued their upward trend for the second consecutive week. The Portuguese and French markets reversed the trend, with increases of 6.5% and 17%, respectively. On the other hand, the Italian market registered declines for the second week, with a drop of 17%.
During the week, the German market reached the second highest value of solar photovoltaic energy production for a November day in its history, registering 116 GWh on Saturday 30.
For the week of December 2, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts expect increases in the Italian and Spanish markets. On the other hand, photovoltaic energy production will decrease in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In the last week of November, wind energy production declined in all major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the smallest drop, 19%, while the Spanish market registered the largest decline, 49%. The Italian, Portuguese and French markets experienced declines of 21%, 29% and 41%, respectively. In Portugal, wind energy production continued its downward trend for the second week.
For the first week of December, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate an increase in production with this technology in the Spanish market. In the Italian, Portuguese, French and German markets, production will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of November 25, electricity demand in the Italian and Spanish markets increased compared to the previous week for the fourth consecutive week. On this occasion, increases reached 0.6% in the Italian market and 2.2% in the Spanish market. However, the rest of the main European markets registered declines in demand. The Portuguese market registered the smallest drop, 0.3%, while the French market registered the largest decline, 5.8%. In the German, Belgian, British and Dutch markets, declines ranged from 1.4% in Germany to 4.8% in the Netherlands.
Average temperatures were less cold than the previous week in most analyzed markets. The Netherlands registered the largest increase in average temperatures, 2.6 °C, while France registered the smallest rise, 1.3 °C. Germany, Belgium and Great Britain registered increases of 1.9 °C in the first two countries and 2.4 °C in the latter. On the other hand, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula registered decreases in average temperatures of 0.1 °C in Italy, 1.2 °C in Portugal and 1.3 °C in Spain.
For the first week of December, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that electricity demand will increase in most major European markets. In the Netherlands and Spain, demand will decrease compared to the previous week. In the Spanish market, the national holiday on Friday the 6th, Spanish Constitution Day, will favor a drop in weekly demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of November, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a 21% drop. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the highest percentage price rise, 34%, while the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest increase, 1.8%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 5.7% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 10% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the fourth week of November, weekly averages exceeded €100/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic market and the French market, which registered the lowest averages, €43.27/MWh and €97.71/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €138.16/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €101.84/MWh in the German market to €124.53/MWh in the Portuguese market.
Regarding hourly prices, the German, British, Dutch and Nordic markets registered negative hourly prices during the early hours of Monday, November 25, due to the high wind energy production during the first hours of the week. The German market reached the lowest price, ?€1.86/MWh, from 3:00 to 4:00.
In the week of November 25, the rise in gas prices and the fall in weekly wind energy production caused the price rise in the European electricity markets. In the case of the Italian market, solar energy production also fell and demand increased slightly, which contributed to this market registering the highest weekly average. In the case of Spain, lower nuclear energy production due to the refueling outage at the Ascó I nuclear power plant also favored higher prices in this market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of December, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by falling wind energy production and rising demand. However, the MIBEL and IPEX markets might register price decreases. The increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, the decrease in electricity demand in Spain and the increase in solar energy production in Spain and Italy will contribute to this behavior.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market began the fourth week of November with price declines. On Tuesday, November 26, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $72.81/bbl. Subsequently, prices recovered. On Thursday, November 28, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $73.28/bbl. However, on Friday, November 29, there was a slight decline and the settlement price was $72.94/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.0% lower than the previous Friday.
In the fourth week of November, the ceasefire in Lebanon contributed to the decline in Brent oil futures prices. On the other hand, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December 1 was postponed until December 5. On that day, OPEC+ member countries will decide whether to increase production levels in January.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they started the fourth week of November with price increases. On Monday, November 25, the settlement price was €47.73/MWh. Subsequently, prices declined and on Thursday, November 28, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €46.26/MWh. However, prices rose again on Friday. After a rise of 3.4% over the previous day, on Friday, November 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €47.81/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.7% higher than the previous Friday.
Expectations of increased demand with lower temperatures in December contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices. In addition, European reserve levels were lower than last year. On the other hand, increased demand for liquefied natural gas in the Asian market caused some Europe?bound vessels to divert to Asia.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €69.86/t, on Monday, November 25. Subsequently, prices declined and on Thursday, November 28, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €67.63/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since November 14. On Friday, November 29, prices were up 1.1% from Thursday. The settlement price was €68.40/t, still 1.3% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and the energy transition in Europe
On Thursday, December 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 50th webinar in its monthly webinar series. The event will coincide with the fifth anniversary of the webinar series. On this occasion, the webinar will summarize the evolution of the electricity market in the five?year period that is coming to an end. It will also analyze the prospects for the next five years, as well as some of the main vectors of the energy transition. These include renewable energies, batteries, demand, green hydrogen and other renewable fuels. The webinar in Spanish will feature speakers from PwC Spain, Deloitte and EY.
