BTM Consult Releases New Wind Power Report. BTM Consult, a premier forecaster for the international wind turbines industry and part of Navigantfs global Energy practice, announced that it has released International Wind Energy Development: World Update 2011.
The 150+ page World Market Update 2011 is BTM Consult’s seventeenth edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report includes more than 80 tables, charts and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as a wind farm market forecast for 2012 – 2016 and predictions for the wind power market through 2021.
The report delivers several views* on the fast]growing wind turbines market, including:
Record installation of 41.7 GW
Strong presence of four Chinese wind turbine suppliers in the Top 10 list
China maintains the No. 1 market position in the world, with 17.6 GW of new wind farm capacity
Offshore wind power is on track for increased contribution to wind power in Europe
Market value will grow from €52.2 billion in 2011 to €86.3 billion in 2016
Direct drive wind turbines now account for 21.2% of the world’s supply of wind power capacity
Wind power will deliver 2.26% of the world’s electricity in 2012
Forecasts and predictions to 2021 indicate that wind power can meet 8.0% of the world’s consumption of electricity by 2021
International Wind Energy Development – World Update 2011 includes individual country wind market assessments, incentives around the world, and detailed analysis of both the demand- and supply-sides of the wind market in 2011. This year’s report reviews the latest developments in hydraulic drivetrains, identifies the pros and cons, and compares the hydraulic technology to the industry’s three currently established drivetrain technologies: conventional gear-, direct- and hybrid-drivetrains.
Demand
With 41,712 MW of new wind farm installations, the total installed capacity of wind power grew to around 241,000 MW. This was an increase in cumulative wind turbines installations of 21%. In terms of annual installations, there was a modest increase of just 6%. Annual installed capacity has grown by an annual average of 23% over the past five years. This outcome happened in the third year after the financial/economic crisis struck the world, including some of the wind industry’s most important markets in the US and Europe.
Supply
The most significant change in the supply market was the strong growth of Chinese wind turbine suppliers. Four Chinese companies still hold strong positions among the Top 10, including Goldwind (No. 2), Sinovel (No. 7), United Power (No. 8) and Mingyang (No. 10).
Vestas is still the world’s largest turbine supplier despite its market share dropping by 1.4% to 12.9% in 2011. Goldwind (CN) advanced to No. 2 and GE Wind (US) remains as the world’s No. 3. Hereafter follows Gamesa(ES), Enercon (GE), Suzlon Group (IND), Sinovel (CN), United Power(CN), Siemens Wind (DK) and finally, new on the Top 10 list is Mingyang (CN).
Looking Forward
Despite the fact the Asian market, especially China and India, remains strong, the average growth rate for new annual installations for the forecast period, 2012-2016 is only 10%. This is the first time the annual growth rate has been revised downwards by more than 5% points, thus revising the World Market Update’s five year forecast. At the end of the forecast period, the annual rate of new capacity is expected to surpass 68,105 MW per year. The cumulative level of installations expected over the five year forecast is 269,845 MW, 14% lower than last year’s forecast. This year, a growth of 3.5% over 2011 is expected.
Despite a downgrade in the growth rate for the next five years, global growth will continue. The global drivers for wind power remains strong, although profiles vary from region to region. In Asia (India and China), the drivers are strong economic growth and the need for electricity; in Europe, the driver is determined political action to combat global warning; and in the US, the drivers are a mix of global warming and security of supply. The more uncertain prediction for the period from 2017 to 2021 indicates an improved average growth rate of 11.5%, also justified by the likelihood of political action to implement new decisions on the climate change issue.
More information and report pricing for World Market Update 2011 can be found at www.navigant.com/windreport
