In the first week of March, prices of most European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week, influenced by the increase in demand caused by the drop in temperatures. Regarding the photovoltaic energy production, on March 2 a record was reached in Portugal and on the 3rd the highest in a month of March was registered in Spain. On the other hand, gas futures reached the lowest price since August 2021 and CO2 futures, the second highest in history.
Solar photovoltaic and thermoelectric energy production and wind energy production
During the first week of March, the solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in all European markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The largest rise was that of the German market, of 48%. In the French and Spanish markets, the increases were 40%, while in the Italian market the production increased by 36%. On the other hand, the smallest increase in solar energy production, of 11%, was registered in the Portuguese market.
However, while in the rest of the markets the weekly maximum daily productions were the highest since September 2022, in the case of Portugal, on March 2 a record daily solar photovoltaic energy production of 11.6 GWh was reached. In the case of the Spanish market, on Friday, March 3, a solar photovoltaic energy production of 107 GWh was reached, which is the highest since the beginning of September 2022 and the highest registered in a month of March.
For the second week of March, the AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasting indicates that the production might decrease in Germany, Spain and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
During the week of February 27, the wind energy production increased compared to the previous week in almost all European markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The largest rise, of 49%, was that of the Spanish market, followed by that of the French market, of 21%. On the contrary, the smallest increases, of 1.7% and 4.5%, corresponded to the markets of Italy and Portugal, respectively. On the other hand, the production with this technology decreased in Germany by 48%.
For the week of March 6, the AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasting indicates that the production might increase in most markets, but decreases might be registered in the French market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of February 27, the electricity demand increased in almost all European markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting compared to the previous week. The exception was the Dutch market, with a decrease of 3.9%. On the other hand, the largest increase, of 13%, was registered in the French market. In the rest of the markets, the demand increased between 1.9% of the German market and 7.7% of the British market.
In the first week of March, the general drop in average temperatures contributed to the increase in electricity demand in European markets.
For the week of March 6, according to the demand forecasting made by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, decreases are expected in most European markets, influenced by the rise in average temperatures.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the week of February 27, prices of most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the MIBEL market of Portugal and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with decreases of 0.5% and 3.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the highest price rise, of 22%, was that of the EPEX SPOT market of Germany. In the rest of the markets, the increases were between 2.2% of the MIBEL market of Spain and 9.3% of the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the first week of March, the highest average price, of €160.35/MWh, was that of the IPEX market of Italy, followed by the averages of the French market and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, of €154.98/ MWh and €154.06/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the lowest weekly average was that of the Nordic market, of €77.12/MWh. In the rest of the analysed markets, prices were between €133.97/MWh of the Dutch market and €144.08/MWh of the Belgian market.
Regarding hourly prices, on Monday, March 6, from 18:00 to 19:00, a price of €180.13/MWh was reached in the Nord Pool market, the highest in this market since December 2022. In the Nordic market, the average price of March 6, of €137.68/MWh, was also the highest since December 2022.
During the week of February 27, the increase in electricity demand in almost all European markets led to the rise in prices in most analysed markets, despite the decrease in gas and CO2 emission rights prices compared to the previous week. In the case of the German market, the drop in wind energy production also contributed to this behaviour.
The AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasting indicates that in the second week of March prices might drop in European electricity markets, influenced by the decrease in demand and the increase in wind energy production in most analysed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
On Monday, February 27, Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered the weekly minimum settlement price, of $82.45/bbl, which was 1.9% lower than that of the previous Monday. The rest of the week, prices increased until reaching a settlement price of $85.83/bbl on Friday, March 3. This price was 3.2% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Expectations about the recovery of the demand in China led to the increase in Brent oil futures prices, despite the increase in US crude reserves. Price increases registered in the first week of March were also influenced by plans to cut Russian exports this month.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Monday, February 27, they registered a settlement price of €47.30/MWh, which was 5.2% lower than that of the previous Monday. Despite that, this was the weekly maximum settlement price. The following three days, settlement prices were lower than those of the same days of the previous week, but they remained above €46/MWh. However, on Friday, March 3, prices dropped to €44.98/MWh. This settlement price was 12% lower than that of the previous Friday and the lowest since August 24, 2021.
The levels of European gas reserves and the supply of liquefied natural gas by sea continued to lead to the decline in TTF gas futures prices in the first week of March. The forecasts of higher temperatures and higher wind energy production might also exert their downward influence on prices in the second week of the month.
Regarding CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2023, on Monday, February 27, they reached a settlement price of €100.23/t. This price was 1.9% higher than that of the previous Monday and the second highest in history, after that registered on February 21. However, the rest of the week prices fell. As a result, on Friday, March 3, the weekly minimum settlement price, of €92.18/t, was reached, which was 5.3% lower than that of the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
The third webinar of 2023 of the series of monthly webinars of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will take place on Thursday, March 16. In this webinar, guest speakers from EY will once again participate. The topics to be analysed on this occasion include the prospects for European energy markets for spring 2023, the update of the regulation of the Spanish energy sector, the perspectives of the reform of the European Union electricity market, the financing of renewable energy projects, the importance of PPA and self?consumption, as well as the main considerations to take into account in the portfolio valuation.
On the other hand, the online platform Alea Energy DataBase (AleaApp) was developed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, which allows the compilation, visualisation and analysis of data related to energy markets. At Alea Energy DataBase, it is possible to access data such as prices and demand of the main European electricity markets. In addition, in the fuels observatory, price series of gas, oil, coal and CO2 emission rights are available. On the other hand, there is the possibility of customising the visualisation of the time series, selecting the range of dates or the granularity of the data, among other options.
