In the third week of June, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The main causes of this rise were the increase in average temperatures, which favored the increase in demand in most markets, as well as the generalized decrease in wind energy production and the decrease in solar energy production in most markets. Solar energy production only increased in Spain, where photovoltaic energy registered an all?time production record on June 21.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
During the week of June 17, solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Spanish market for the second consecutive week. On this occasion, the increase in production, which includes solar photovoltaic energy and solar thermoelectric energy, was 6.1%. In the case of solar photovoltaic energy, the Spanish market registered an all?time daily production record on Friday, June 21, reaching a generation of 198 GWh.
The rest of the main European markets registered decreases in solar energy production compared to the second week of June. The French, Italian and German markets continued the downward trend of the previous week, this time with decreases of 14%, 5.9% and 1.2%, respectively. In Portugal, solar energy production fell by 12%.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts for the week of June 24, in Germany and Spain, production will increase compared to the previous week. However, Italy will maintain the downward trend of the past two weeks.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the third week of June, wind energy production decreased across the board in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Germany and France registered the largest declines, 52% and 35% in each case. In the Italian, Portuguese and Spanish markets, the falls were 28%, 22% and 20%, respectively. In the Spanish market, this is the third consecutive week of declines in wind energy production.
In the last week of June, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s wind energy production forecasts, production using this technology will increase in the Italian and Spanish markets. However, it will continue to decline in the French, Portuguese and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the third week of June, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 7.8%, followed by the rises in the Belgian, Dutch and Spanish markets, 2.7%, 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. In the French market the increase was 1.1% and in the German market 1.0%, the latter maintaining its upward trend for the fourth consecutive week. In the Portuguese market, demand increased by 0.9%, after the recovery in demand due to the previous week’s public holidays: the national holiday of June 10, Portugal Day, and the holiday of June 13, St. Anthony’s Day, celebrated in some regions of the country. On the other hand, the British market was the exception, with demand falling by 3.6%.
During the week, average temperatures increased compared to the previous week in all analyzed markets. In the markets of the Netherlands, Italy, France, Great Britain, Belgium and Germany, the increases ranged from 2.2 °C in the Netherlands to 4.0 °C in Germany. The Spanish and Portuguese markets had the smallest increases, 1.2 °C and 0.9 °C, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, in the last week of June, electricity demand will increase compared to the previous week in Great Britain, France, Spain and Portugal. On the other hand, it will fall in the markets of the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the third week of June, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a decrease of 1.2%. The EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price rise, 145%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 10% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 50% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of June 17, despite the price increases, weekly averages remained below €100/MWh in almost all analyzed European electricity markets. The IPEX market of Italy was the exception, with an average of €109.80/MWh. The Nordic market and the French market registered the lowest weekly averages, €33.89/MWh and €51.50/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €58.36/MWh in the MIBEL market of Spain to €95.88/MWh in the British market.
Regarding hourly prices, most analyzed European markets registered negative prices on Sunday, June 23. The exceptions were the British, Italian and Nordic markets, which did not register negative prices in the third week of June. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets also registered negative hourly prices on Saturday, June 22. On the other hand, the German and Dutch markets registered the lowest hourly price of the third week of June, ?€2.21/MWh, on Sunday from 14:00 to 15:00.
During the week of June 17, the fall in wind energy production had an upward influence on European electricity market prices. In addition, demand increased and solar energy production fell in most analyzed markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of June, prices will continue to increase in markets such as Spain, France and Portugal, while in markets such as the United Kingdom, Italy and the Netherlands prices will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
On Monday, June 17, Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $84.25/bbl, which was 2.0% higher than the last session of the previous week. In the rest of the sessions of the third week of June, settlement prices remained above $85/bbl. On Thursday, June 20, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $85.71/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since early May. After a 0.5% decline, on Friday, June 21, the settlement price was $85.24/bbl, 3.2% higher than the previous Friday.
In the third week of June, despite concerns about demand in China and high interest rates in the United States, declining US reserves and supply concerns due to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East pushed Brent oil futures prices higher than in previous weeks.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, on Monday, June 17, the settlement price was €34.21/MWh, 3.3% lower than the last session of the previous week. Prices recovered on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday, June 19, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.34/MWh. In the last sessions of the week, prices fell again. On Friday, June 21, they registered the weekly minimum settlement price, €33.94/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.0% lower than the previous Friday. In the third week of June, the average settlement price was 1.3% lower than the previous week.
In the third week of June, despite supply concerns, high levels of European gas reserves exerted their downward influence on TTF gas futures prices. At the end of the week, news of the restart of production at an Australian liquefied natural gas export plant also contributed to this behavior.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they started the third week of June with price declines. On Monday, June 17, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €67.99/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.4% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since the end of April. During the third week of June, settlement prices remained below €70/t, except on Wednesday, June 19. On Wednesday, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €70.33/t. Subsequently, prices declined again. On Friday, June 21, the settlement price was €68.13/t.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, PPA and energy transition
The 46th webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will take place on Thursday, July 11. The webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, price cannibalization, low prices, price factor of renewable technologies, the prospects for photovoltaic energy, batteries and hybridization, as well as PPA from the point of view of large and electro?intensive consumers. The webinar will also include an explanation of the new AleaSoft divisions to boost renewable energy and energy transition. On this occasion, guest speakers from AEGE, Banco Sabadell, Axpo Iberia and CESCE will participate in the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish.
